조선주 아직 못 샀다면 하반기 ‘이 주식’ 주목하세요 (양승윤 연구원 2부)

About this Video

• Video Title: 조선주 아직 못 샀다면 하반기 ‘이 주식’ 주목하세요 (양승윤 연구원 2부)
• Channel: 부자티비
• Speakers: 양승윤 연구원 (and possibly a host, though the host's name is not explicitly stated)
• Duration: 00:19:02

Introduction

This video discusses the current state and future prospects of the shipbuilding industry (조선업) in South Korea. The speaker, a research analyst (Yang Seung-yun), analyzes the industry's valuation, investment strategies, and key issues to consider for the second half of the year. Specific companies like Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hana Ocean are mentioned.

Key Takeaways

• Valuation: The analyst primarily uses Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR) rather than Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER) to assess the valuation of shipbuilding companies due to past volatile cycles. Current PBR for major companies is around 4-5 times, nearing levels seen during previous boom periods.
• Future Outlook (Long-Term): Despite high current valuations, the long-term outlook (2027-2029) remains positive due to expected sustained demand, driven by geopolitical factors and energy transitions. The amount of new orders (수주) is crucial for future growth.
• Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East (e.g., potential Hormuz Strait blockade), can significantly impact demand for tankers and LNG carriers, leading to increased shipping costs and potentially higher shipbuilding orders.
• Company-Specific Strategies: Different shipbuilding companies focus on different sectors (e.g., Hana Ocean on special ships, Samsung Heavy Industries on offshore, Hyundai Heavy Industries on merchant ships). The analyst suggests focusing on companies with strong order books and high profitability.
• Investment Strategy: While the industry is considered attractive for long-term investment, the high current valuation makes short-term investment risky. The analyst advises a long-term investment approach, considering factors like profitability, production efficiency, and the impact of exchange rates. Specific attention is given to the potential for increased LNG carrier orders from the US.