About this video

• Video Title: All-In's 2026 Predictions
• Channel: All-In Podcast
• Speakers: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, David Friedberg
• Duration: 01:31:11

Overview

This video features the "All-In" podcast hosts making predictions for the year 2026 across various categories including politics, business, assets, trends, and media. They discuss topics like the California wealth tax, economic growth, AI's impact, geopolitical shifts, and the future of different industries.

Key takeaways

• California Exodus and Wealth Tax: The hosts discuss the potential impact of California's wealth tax, with some predicting a continued exodus of businesses and individuals from the state due to high taxes and regulations.
• Political Landscape: Predictions range from the rise of Democratic Socialists and the "Trump boom" to the potential decline of centrism within the Democratic party and the rise of nationalist sentiments.
• Economic Growth and Business Trends: The podcast anticipates strong economic growth, with specific predictions for sectors like AI, robotics, copper, and IPOs. Conversely, they foresee challenges for industries like traditional media, enterprise software, and hydrocarbons.
• Geopolitical and Social Shifts: Discussions touch upon potential regime change in Iran, the evolving role of the US in global affairs under a "Trump doctrine," and the cultural shifts impacting younger generations in the workforce.
• Media and Technology: The hosts predict a rise in citizen journalism and investigative content, alongside continued advancements and disruption from AI in various sectors, including media and software development.

Here is an organized list of predictions from each guest for 2026:

David Friedberg (Freeberg)

• Biggest Political Winner: Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) taking over the Democratic party.
• Biggest Business Winner:
  1. Huawei (due to chip stack advancements and outperforming expectations).
  2. Poly market (evolving into a significant insight provider for current events).
• Biggest Business Loser: State governments facing financing problems due to waste, fraud, and abuse, coupled with unrealized pension liabilities.
• Most Contrarian Belief: A revolution in Iran leading to the ousting of the Ayatollas, which will paradoxically lead to more conflict among other Arab states as they vie for influence, suggesting Iran might have been a stabilizing force.
• Best Performing Asset: Poly market.
• Worst Performing Asset: Hydrocarbons (oil prices expected to trend down to $45 per barrel).
• Most Anticipated Trend: Citizen journalism leading to exposees and uncovering more information, with a monetization path through platforms like Substack and YouTube.
• Most Anticipated Media: Citizen journalism doing exposees.

Chamath Palihapitiya

• Biggest Political Winner: Whoever fights waste, fraud, and abuse at federal, state, and local levels.
• Biggest Business Winner: Himself/His prediction of dollar-denominated stablecoins (already in the books).
• Biggest Business Loser: The software industrial complex (licensed SaaS to corporations) due to advancements in AI agents and systems reducing maintenance and migration revenue.
• Most Contrarian Belief:
  1. SpaceX will not IPO; it will reverse merge into Tesla, consolidating Elon Musk's control.
  2. Central banks will move beyond gold and Bitcoin to develop a new, controllable cryptographic paradigm resistant to quantum computing threats.
• Best Performing Asset: A basket of critical metals.
• Worst Performing Asset: Hydrocarbons (oil prices likely to see $45 per barrel).
• Most Anticipated Trend: Expansion of the "Trump doctrine" of unilateralism and economic resilience, leading to massive GDP prints.
• Most Anticipated Media: Same as Friedberg - citizen journalism doing exposees.

David Sacks

• Biggest Political Winner: The "Trump boom" driven by positive economic news.
• Biggest Business Winner:
  1. IPOs (predicting trillions in new market cap creation).
  2. Amazon (due to automation replacing humans and efficient delivery).
• Biggest Business Loser:
  1. California luxury real estate (due to wealth tax and regulations).
  2. Young white-collar workers struggling to find entry-level jobs due to AI automation and "cultural issues."
• Most Contrarian Belief: AI will increase, not decrease, demand for knowledge workers due to Jevons paradox, leading to more software generation and discoveries.
• Best Performing Asset: Robin Hood, Poly market, Prize Picks, and other wagering/gambling spaces; also mentions US economy poised to "rip" and asset prices in general.
• Worst Performing Asset: California luxury real estate.
• Most Anticipated Trend: Auditing government spending at all levels, normalizing independent audits and whistleblower activities.
• Most Anticipated Media: First Amendment auditors (documenting police interactions regarding filming rights), finding them entertaining.

Jason Calacanis

• Biggest Political Winner: J.D. Vance ("Darth Vance") as emperor's apprentice or the "Mandami moment" due to Democrats embracing socialism.
• Biggest Business Winner: Amazon (due to automation and efficient delivery).
• Biggest Business Loser: Young white-collar workers in America due to AI automation and challenges in hiring entry-level talent.
• Most Contrarian Belief: (Did not explicitly state one, but heavily implied his belief in strong economic growth driven by tax cuts and productivity).
• Best Performing Asset: Robin Hood, Poly market, Prize Picks, and other wagering/gambling spaces; US economy poised to "rip."
• Worst Performing Asset: California luxury real estate.
• Most Anticipated Trend: The "wrath of Lena" ending, leading to a wave of M&A and IPOs, with SpaceX, Andro, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI filing for IPO.
• Most Anticipated Media: The "Odyssey" by Christopher Nolan (though he expressed strong dislike for the book itself), and "Avengers Doomsday."