About this video

• Video Title: 전기차 & 이차전지 시장 진단
• Channel: Tomorrow [투자의 모든 길]
• Speakers: Not specified in the transcript.
• Duration: 24:22

Overview

This video provides an in-depth analysis of the electric vehicle (EV) and secondary battery market, focusing on recent performance trends, policy changes, and future outlook. It discusses Q3 earnings reports, global EV sales, European policy shifts towards incentivizing domestic production, and the impact of interest rates and incentives on car pricing and manufacturer profitability. The speaker aims to provide insights relevant to investors in the secondary battery sector.

Key takeaways

• Q3 Earnings and Market Sentiment: The video begins by highlighting the upcoming Q3 earnings announcements for major South Korean secondary battery companies and discusses the recent positive market sentiment and price increases in the sector.
• US EV Sales Performance: Q3 saw record-high EV sales in the US, driven partly by the expiration of consumer tax credits, leading consumers to purchase vehicles before the deadline. However, the growth was concentrated in established brands, with other EV brands experiencing a decline.
• European Policy Shifts: Europe is actively re-evaluating its EV policies, with countries like Germany and the UK introducing new subsidies and incentives to boost domestic production and sales, focusing on raw material independence (CRMA). This contrasts with the US's trend of reducing consumer subsidies.
• New Car Pricing Dynamics: Despite efforts to lower EV prices for market penetration, the average transaction price of new cars has reached record highs due to the inclusion of premium models and increased manufacturer incentives to remain competitive.
• Battery Industry Profitability: The profitability of battery companies is highest when there is a significant gap between car prices and incentive expenditures. This gap is expected to widen if premium EV models with higher-spec batteries gain market share or if incentive spending decreases, which is anticipated with potential interest rate cuts.
• Focus on Cost Reduction: In the current market, where both car prices and incentives are high, cost reduction is identified as the key strategy for manufacturers to gain a competitive edge.
• Future Outlook: The speaker anticipates a normalization of the market and expects a strong performance from Korean battery companies if the gap between car prices and incentive costs widens, especially with potential interest rate reductions boosting consumer purchasing power.

This passage explains how the profitability of battery manufacturers is influenced by the difference between car prices and the incentives (subsidies) offered.

Here's a breakdown:

• "차량 가격과 보조금(인센티브) 간의 격차가 클수록 배터리 제조사들의 수익성이 높음."

  • This means that when the difference between the selling price of a car and the amount of subsidy or incentive given for it is large, battery makers tend to make more money.
  • Think of it this way: If a car is sold for a high price, and the government or manufacturer gives a significant subsidy, the battery manufacturer can still command a good price for their battery, leading to better profit margins. If the car price is low and the subsidy is also low, the pressure to reduce battery costs increases, squeezing margins.

• "향후 금리 인하로 보조금이 줄고, 고급차 판매 비중이 늘면 이 격차가 확대되어 수익성 개선이 기대됨"

  • "금리 인하로 보조금이 줄고": The speaker suggests that as interest rates decrease, the need for government subsidies might also decrease. Lower interest rates make it easier for consumers to finance car purchases, potentially reducing the reliance on subsidies to drive sales.
  • "고급차 판매 비중이 늘면": If the sales of more expensive, premium electric vehicles increase, this also contributes to the widening gap.
  • "이 격차가 확대되어 수익성 개선이 기대됨": When both these factors (lower subsidies and higher-priced vehicles with potentially lower relative incentives) are in play, the gap between the car's price and the direct financial support (incentives) increases. This wider gap is seen as positive for battery manufacturers because it allows them to maintain or increase their profit margins.

In essence, the speaker is predicting that a combination of lower interest rates making financing easier and a shift towards more expensive EVs will create a more favorable environment for battery companies to profit, as the effective cost of batteries relative to the overall vehicle price and reduced need for heavy subsidies becomes more advantageous for them.