"Bald reißen wir alle Wärmepumpen wieder raus" Energieexperte erklärt; Prof Leukefeld | Prof Rieck

About this video

• Video Title: "Bald reißen wir alle Wärmepumpen wieder raus" Energieexperte erklärt; Prof Leukefeld | Prof Rieck
• Channel: Prof. Dr. Christian Rieck
• Speakers: Prof. Dr. Christian Rieck, Prof. Timo Leukefeld
• Duration: 01:03:45

Overview

This video features an interview between Prof. Dr. Christian Rieck and energy expert Prof. Timo Leukefeld. They discuss the practical performance, efficiency, and economic viability of heat pumps compared to infrared heating systems. The conversation touches upon the complexities of heat pump installations, their real-world annual performance figures, the impact of installation quality, and the broader implications for energy policy and the building sector.

Key takeaways

• Heat Pump Inefficiency in Practice: While heat pumps are theoretically rated for an efficiency of 1:4 (1 kWh electricity yielding 4 kWh heat), real-world measurements in a Fraunhofer study showed significantly lower practical annual performance figures: 1.5 for geothermal, 2.2 for air, and 2.5 for ground source heat pumps.
• Installation Complexity and Failure Rates: Heat pumps are described as complex systems sensitive to installation errors, leading to a high failure rate during training for HVAC technicians. This, combined with a shortage of skilled labor, is expected to increase installation errors.
• Infrared Heating as an Alternative: Infrared heating is presented as a simpler, more cost-effective, and less maintenance-intensive alternative. It provides radiant heat, leading to more uniform room temperatures and perceived warmth at lower air temperatures, potentially saving energy.
• Economic Viability: The analysis suggests that installing a heat pump system, especially in new constructions, is significantly more expensive than infrared heating, with a much longer, often unachievable, amortization period.
• "Stranded Assets" and Policy Implications: The current building stock, particularly post-war construction, may become "stranded assets" if forced to adopt technologies like heat pumps without adequate insulation or proper system integration, leading to economic and energy inefficiencies. The discussion critiques the government's approach to the energy transition, advocating for more technology-open and economically sound solutions.

The installation of heat pumps is considered particularly prone to errors because they are complex systems that are very sensitive to installation mistakes. This sensitivity means that incorrect hydraulic balancing, improper setting of flow rates, and incorrect placement of sensors can significantly impact performance.

The impact of these installation errors is a substantial decrease in the heat pump's actual efficiency and, consequently, its annual performance figures (Jahresarbeitszahl or JAZ). While manufacturers might advertise a JAZ of 4, real-world measurements have shown these figures to be much lower, as low as 1.5 to 2.5, due to these installation-related inefficiencies and system losses. Furthermore, the shortage of skilled labor in the HVAC industry, coupled with a high failure rate among trainees learning to install heat pumps, exacerbates the problem, leading to more frequent and impactful installation errors.

For a typical 150 square meter single-family home, the initial investment for a heat pump system (including underfloor heating, distribution, water preparation, and installation) is estimated at €55,000. In contrast, an infrared heating system with decentralized electric water heating for the same house costs around €14,000, representing a difference of €41,000.

Considering these figures, the amortization period for the heat pump system, compared to the infrared system, would be approximately 35 years. This is problematic because the lifespan of a heat pump is typically only 15 to 20 years, meaning the system would likely need replacement before it could ever be amortized.

Table

Topic	Tags
Heat Pump Efficiency	Heat pump performance, Jahresarbeitszahl (JAZ), Fraunhofer study, Real-world efficiency, System losses
Infrared Heating	Radiant heat, Convection heating, Infrared panels, Heating comfort, Energy savings
Building Energy Systems	Renewable energy, Building renovation, Energy efficiency, Heating technology, Smart home
Economic Viability of Heating	Amortization period, Investment cost, Operating costs, Cost comparison, Energy bills
HVAC Installation Challenges	Skilled labor shortage, Installation errors, System complexity, Maintenance-free systems, DIY heating
Building Regulations and Policy	GEG (Gebäudeenergiegesetz), Energy transition, Renewable energy incentives, Building codes, Policy impact
CO2 Emissions and Sustainability	Embodied energy, Grey energy, CO2 footprint, Life cycle assessment, Environmental impact
Building Physics and Comfort	Thermal comfort, Air quality, Humidity control, Passive cooling, Thermal mass
Future of Heating	Energy independence, Grid stability, Electromobility, Climate change adaptation, Sustainable housing
Home Renovation Strategies	Retrofitting, Insulation, Energy audits, Cost-benefit analysis, Long-term value

From a real estate investor's perspective, renovating an old apartment with infrared heating offers significant financial advantages over a heat pump system.

Infrared Heating:

• Lower Initial Investment: The upfront cost for an infrared heating system is considerably lower. As mentioned in the video, it can be around €14,000 for a 150 sqm house, which translates to a much smaller capital outlay per apartment.
• Faster Amortization/Quicker ROI: Due to the significantly lower initial investment and comparable or even better perceived comfort (leading to potentially higher tenant satisfaction and rentability), the return on investment is much faster. The video suggests a scenario where infrared heating, combined with PV, has a 47-year amortization when compared to a heat pump, but this comparison is based on the much higher initial cost of the heat pump. Without the heat pump's high cost, infrared's amortization is drastically reduced.
• Lower Maintenance Costs: Infrared systems are generally maintenance-free, eliminating ongoing service costs that might be associated with heat pumps.
• Simpler Installation: The less complex nature of infrared systems means installation is faster and requires less specialized labor, further reducing renovation costs and potential delays.
• Potential for Higher Rental Yields: The lower overall renovation cost for infrared heating allows for a better rental yield, as the capital expenditure is lower and tenant satisfaction with the heating comfort can be high.

Heat Pump Heating:

• Higher Initial Investment: Heat pumps require a substantial upfront investment, estimated at €55,000 for a comparable house, which significantly impacts the financial feasibility for an investor, especially in older buildings where additional retrofitting (like underfloor heating) might be needed.
• Longer Amortization Period: The high initial cost, combined with potentially lower real-world efficiency and higher operating costs compared to a system paired with solar, results in a very long amortization period, often exceeding the lifespan of the equipment itself. This is a major deterrent for investors focused on financial returns.
• Higher Maintenance Requirements: Heat pumps are more complex and may incur higher maintenance costs over their lifespan, adding to the operational expenses.
• Dependency on System Quality and Installation: The performance of heat pumps is highly dependent on correct installation and system design. Given the current shortage of skilled installers and the propensity for errors, there's a financial risk of underperforming systems and potential future repair costs.
• Potential for "Stranded Assets": If older buildings are not optimally suited for heat pumps (e.g., require extensive upgrades to radiators or insulation to achieve low-temperature heating), the investment in a heat pump could lead to a "stranded asset" – an asset that fails to deliver the expected financial returns or becomes obsolete due to its inefficiency in the specific building context.

Conclusion for Investors: For real estate investors focused on financial returns, infrared heating presents a more attractive option for renovating older apartments. It offers a lower entry cost, faster payback, reduced operational and maintenance expenses, and simpler installation. This allows for a more predictable and favorable return on investment compared to the high initial costs, complex installation requirements, and long, often unachievable, amortization periods associated with heat pumps in many existing building situations. The flexibility and comfort offered by infrared systems also contribute positively to tenant appeal and rental income potential.