Housel uses the example of an investor known to Howard Marks who never ranked in the top 50% of investors in any given year, but over 20 years ended up in the top 4%. This illustrates that short-term performance (year-to-year) is not indicative of long-term success. Those who beat him in any given year couldn't maintain that performance over the longer period.
Housel cites two periods where index fund returns were poor:
The late 1920s to the 1950s, describing the returns as "terrible."
2000 to 2010, stating that real returns were basically 0%.
This video features Morgan Housel discussing a simple investment strategy that can outperform 90% of investors. He argues that contrary to most endeavors, success in investing doesn't correlate with effort; a passive, index fund approach is often more effective for the majority of people.
Morgan Housel mentions using the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, the Vanguard Value Fund, and a small amount of an international fund. His rationale is that a small number of stocks account for the majority of returns, and owning an index fund guarantees ownership of whatever the next major drivers of returns will be, regardless of the difficulty in predicting those drivers in advance. He also emphasizes the minimal effort and low fees associated with these funds.
Housel provides two reasons why index funds work so well:
A small number of stocks account for the majority of returns. Owning an index fund ensures you own these high-performing stocks, even if predicting them in advance is extremely difficult.
Index funds require minimal effort. Investing is one of the few endeavors where less effort often leads to better results, unlike most other areas of life.