About this video

• Video Title: Bet The Process Talks Prediction Markets with John Schilling
• Channel: Bet The Process
• Speakers: Rufus, Jeff, John Schilling (Golden Pants)
• Duration: 58:41

Overview

This episode of the Bet the Process podcast features a discussion on prediction markets with guest John Schilling, also known as Golden Pants. The conversation touches on various aspects of sports betting and prediction markets, including personal betting strategies, market dynamics, the evolution of the industry, and specific event analyses like the Ryder Cup.

Key takeaways

• Prediction Markets as an Opportunity: The podcast highlights prediction markets as a significant and potentially lucrative opportunity, drawing parallels to the repeal of PASPA and the subsequent boom in sports betting.
• Market Making Strategies: John Schilling shares insights into market-making strategies on platforms like Kalshi, discussing the differences between posting "yes" and "no" liquidity, and the importance of understanding market dynamics and order flow.
• Industry Evolution and Competition: The discussion touches upon the increasing competition for recreational bettors across various platforms (sportsbooks, prediction markets) and the challenges of monetizing these markets long-term.
• Golfer's Perspective: Schilling, with a background in golf modeling and betting, offers perspectives on the sport's betting landscape, including past experiences and the challenges of building and maintaining models.
• Ryder Cup Analysis: The conversation includes a detailed breakdown of the Ryder Cup, focusing on simulation models, player pairing strategies, and the impact of home-field advantage.
• Regulatory and Ethical Considerations: The episode touches upon insider trading in prediction markets and the regulatory landscape surrounding these platforms.

They specifically discuss the following college football games:

• Michigan vs. USC: Rufus likes Michigan in this matchup, noting the spread is between +2.5 and +3.
• Indiana at Oregon: Rufus is taking Indiana plus 7.5 points in this game, calling it the "game of the week."
• Penn State vs. UCLA: Rufus mentions laying $96,000 on Penn State to beat UCLA outright, and they lost that bet.
• West Virginia: Rufus mentions West Virginia having a "wonderful back door cover."
• Pitt: Rufus mentions Pitt winning by a lot, covering as a 6-point favorite.