About this video

• Video Title: Book Launch: Cyber Persistence Theory, Rethinking National Security in Cyberspace
• Channel: Center for Strategic & International Studies
• Speakers: Not explicitly named in the transcript, but the authors of the book are present: Michael Fishkiller, Dr. Emily Goldman, and Richard Harknet.
• Duration: 01:01:29 (Note: The transcript duration goes up to 1:01:15, with the remaining time likely for music/outro)

Overview

This video is a book launch event for "Cyber Persistence Theory: Rethinking National Security in Cyberspace." The authors discuss their new theory, contrasting the cyber strategic environment with nuclear and conventional environments. They explore how traditional deterrence strategies may not be effective in cyberspace and introduce the concept of "persistent engagement" and "initiative persistence" as more relevant approaches. The discussion also touches on the behavior of states in cyberspace, the difference between exploitation and coercion, and the potential for stability in this domain.

Key takeaways

• Cyber Persistence Theory: This theory defines cyberspace as a distinct strategic environment with unique conditionalities, differing from nuclear and conventional strategic environments.
• Limitations of Traditional Deterrence: The video argues that traditional deterrence, effective in nuclear and conventional warfare, is less applicable in cyberspace due to its fluid and persistent nature.
• Persistent Engagement: This operational approach involves continuous engagement in cyberspace to improve security and counter threats, reflecting the persistent nature of the environment.
• Exploitation vs. Coercion: A key distinction is made between exploitation (unilateral gain from vulnerabilities) and coercion (shaping an adversary's decision-making through threats), with the former being identified as the primary logic in cyberspace for state actors.
• Paradigm Shift Needed: The authors contend that traditional international relations and security theories, developed for 20th-century environments, need to evolve to adequately address the realities of cyberspace.
• State Behavior in Cyberspace: The book analyzes how states like Russia, China, and North Korea are actively engaging in cyberspace, often exploiting vulnerabilities to gain strategic advantages, sometimes more quickly than Western allies.
• Initiative Persistence: This concept suggests that gaining and maintaining the initiative by anticipating and exploiting vulnerabilities before they are exploited by adversaries is crucial for security in cyberspace.
• Stability in Cyberspace: While acknowledging the challenges, the authors believe stability is possible, not through inaction as in the nuclear age, but through active engagement, learning, and tacit coordination among states.

The video highlights several new challenges in cyberspace that necessitate a new approach to national security, moving beyond traditional paradigms.

Key Challenges:

• The Unique Nature of the Cyber Strategic Environment: Unlike the nuclear or conventional strategic environments, cyberspace is characterized by fluidity, continuous activity, and constant evolution. This means that the terrain, technologies, and vulnerabilities are always changing, making static defense strategies insufficient.
• Inapplicability of Traditional Deterrence: The book argues that traditional deterrence, which relies on the threat of retaliation to prevent conflict, is not well-suited for cyberspace. This is because cyber operations often occur below the threshold of armed conflict and can be difficult to attribute, making the signaling and credibility crucial for deterrence less effective.
• The Dominance of Exploitation over Coercion: The authors emphasize that state-sponsored cyber operations are primarily driven by a logic of exploitation rather than coercion. This means adversaries are focused on unilaterally gaining advantages by exploiting vulnerabilities (e.g., stealing intellectual property, disrupting systems) rather than signaling intent to shape decision-making through threats.
• Persistence of Old Theories and Language: There's a challenge in overcoming the deeply ingrained reliance on 20th-century strategic concepts like deterrence. This "stickiness of paradigms" leads to applying outdated frameworks to a new environment, hindering effective strategy development.
• Adversary Agility: Some adversaries have reportedly grasped the nature of the cyber environment more quickly than Western nations, leveraging its dynamics to gain strategic advantages and shift the distribution of power.

Proposed Solutions and Approaches:

• Adopting "Cyber Persistence Theory": This theory provides a framework for understanding cyberspace as a distinct strategic environment and offers new ways to think about security within it.
• Embracing "Persistent Engagement": This operational approach involves continuous, proactive activities to improve security, such as monitoring networks, hunting for threats, and building resilience. It acknowledges that security in cyberspace requires ongoing effort rather than relying on passive deterrence.
• Focusing on "Initiative Persistence": The core idea here is to gain and maintain the initiative by anticipating and exploiting an adversary's vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. This is about being proactive and controlling the tempo of operations.
• Developing a "Logic of Exploitation" Understanding: Recognizing that states primarily exploit rather than coerce in cyberspace is crucial. Strategic responses need to be tailored to this reality, focusing on defending against and countering exploitation.
• Bridging Policy and Academia: The book aims to bridge the gap between policymakers and academics by offering a theoretical framework grounded in operational realities, encouraging a necessary debate and a shift in how cybersecurity strategy is taught and implemented.
• Learning and Adaptation: The dynamic nature of cyberspace necessitates continuous learning. The book suggests that through operational experience and analysis, states can develop a better understanding of the environment and adapt their strategies accordingly. The US shift from a "doctrine of restraint" to "persistence" is presented as an example of this adaptation.
• Tacit Bargaining and Coordination: While direct engagement is complex, the authors suggest that over time, states may develop tacit understandings or informal agreements (tacit bargaining) through observing each other's behavior, which could lead to a more stable environment by discouraging escalation into militarized conflict.
• Whole-of-Society Approach: The Ukraine conflict highlighted the importance of a "whole-society plus" approach, where governments, private companies (like Microsoft and Dragos), and other entities collaborate to identify and mitigate cyber threats, contributing to collective security.

The speakers in the video seem to lean towards viewing cyber interactions primarily as a strategic competition rather than solely an intelligence contest. Here's why:

• Focus on Power Dynamics and Strategic Advantage: A significant portion of the discussion revolves around how states are using cyber capabilities to shift the distribution of power, gain strategic advantages, and alter the international system. This is a core tenet of strategic competition.
• Emphasis on Theory and Strategy: The book's title itself, "Cyber Persistence Theory, Rethinking National Security in Cyberspace," indicates a focus on developing a comprehensive theory and strategy for understanding and operating in this domain. This goes beyond just gathering intelligence.
• Analysis of State Behavior and Intentions: The speakers discuss the "logic of exploitation" and how states are acting to achieve geopolitical aims. This analysis of intent and the resulting actions aligns more with strategic competition than just an intelligence gathering exercise.
• Broader Implications Beyond Information Gathering: While intelligence is undoubtedly a component of cyber interactions, the discussion focuses on outcomes like altering power balances, influencing international norms, and potentially avoiding or managing conflict. These are strategic objectives.
• Contrast with Traditional Intelligence: An "intelligence contest" might imply a focus on espionage, counter-espionage, and information gathering to understand an adversary. While this occurs, the speakers emphasize proactive operations, shaping the environment, and achieving tangible strategic shifts, which are hallmarks of competition.

However, it's important to note that intelligence is a crucial enabler of strategic competition. To compete effectively, states need robust intelligence to understand adversary capabilities, intentions, and actions. So, while they advocate for a strategic competition framework, they implicitly acknowledge the vital role of intelligence within that framework.

The discussion doesn't frame it as an either/or situation, but rather that the strategic competition lens provides a more comprehensive and explanatory framework for understanding the broader geopolitical implications and the actions of states in cyberspace.

While the authors clearly believe Cyber Persistence Theory offers a more accurate and effective way to understand and respond to the challenges in cyberspace, the transcript doesn't explicitly state whether it's presented as a readily communicable counter-strategy to the public.

Here's a breakdown of what the transcript suggests:

• Bridging Theory and Policy: The authors emphasize their intent to bridge the gap between academic theory and policy. They mention that their initial essays were intended to influence policy "today" and that they aimed to "shape the way strategy was being taught about cyberspace in the academic community." This suggests an effort to make the theory actionable.
• Operationalization of the Theory: They discuss how the theory was developed alongside the operationalization of "persistent engagement" within the U.S. military. This indicates a connection to practical application.
• "Bridging the Gap" Series: Publishing in Oxford's "Bridging the Gap" series further reinforces their intention to connect theoretical concepts with practical policy implications.
• Complexity of the Concepts: However, the concepts themselves, such as "initiative persistence," the distinction between "exploitation" and "coercion," and the nuanced understanding of strategic environments, are complex. Explaining these to a general public in a simple, effective "counter-strategy" message would be challenging.
• Ongoing Debate: The authors anticipate a "debate" and acknowledge that it's a "long haul" issue, indicating that the theory is still being established and its public communication strategy might be evolving.
• Focus on Existing Language: They note that while the underlying logic might be shifting, the language used in policy documents (like "deterrence") often persists, suggesting that a clean break in communication might not be immediate.

In summary:

The authors are certainly aiming to influence policy and provide a more effective framework. However, the transcript doesn't confirm whether "Cyber Persistence Theory" is presented in a way that is easily digestible and communicable to the general public as a straightforward counter-strategy. The complexity of the concepts and the ongoing nature of the debate suggest that it's more likely a framework for strategists and policymakers, with the hope that its implications will eventually filter down through policy and public discourse.