About this Video

• Video Title: BREAKING: The FED Rejects Rate Cuts, Trump Retaliates, Tariffs Are Back!
• Channel: Graham Stephan
• Speakers: Graeme Stephan
• Duration: 00:14:23

Introduction

This video discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, President Trump's response, the re-implementation of tariffs, and the potential implications for the US economy, including the stock market, housing market, and the possibility of a recession.

Key Takeaways

• Federal Reserve's Decision: The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts, defying President Trump's public pressure. They cited potential inflationary impacts from tariffs and a preference for a data-driven approach.
• Trump's Response and Tariffs: President Trump reacted negatively, re-implemented tariffs, and engaged in a trade war with China, leading to increased prices on consumer goods.
• Stock Market Reaction: Despite initial volatility, the stock market largely recovered and showed signs of a potential new bull market, indicated by the "breath thrust indicator". However, uncertainty remains due to ongoing economic factors.
• Housing Market Trends: While home prices showed increases year-over-year, month-over-month growth slowed, signaling a potential normalization or even decline in prices in some areas. Buyer behavior and increased listings suggest a shift in market dynamics.
• Recession Concerns: High levels of economic uncertainty and pessimism among Americans, along with warnings from business leaders, indicate a significant likelihood of a recession in the near future.

The "breath thrust indicator" is a metric that analyzes sudden market movements to determine the beginnings of a new bull market. The transcript states that since 1945, it has been correct 14 out of 14 times, with average gains of 24.6% over the following 11 months. Its recent confirmation suggests a potential start of a new bull market with prices moving higher. However, the video also cautions that this indicator's past accuracy doesn't guarantee future success given the current unique economic circumstances.

The transcript highlights conflicting viewpoints on the impact of tariffs and the recession risk:

• One perspective: The White House stated that China tariffs would decrease substantially and that talks were underway. Some analysts believed a trade deal with China would return the market to all-time highs, potentially boosted further by lower interest rates. Conversely, some economists argued that tariffs would not have a significant impact beyond the current year.

• Another perspective: CNN reported that market fear was near an all-time high, with many Americans pessimistic about the economy and anticipating a recession. The CEO of BlackRock expressed concerns that the US economy was already in a recession. Other experts suggested that empty shelves (due to shipping delays) were an overly dramatic prediction because companies had pre-bought inventory. There was also concern that recession fears could create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In short, there's disagreement on both the impact of tariffs (inflationary vs. minimal impact) and the severity and immediacy of a potential recession.