About this video

• Video Title: CORUJÃO DO BITCOIN - DOMINGO CRYPTO!
• Channel: Rogério Menezes
• Speakers: Rogério Menezes
• Duration: 01:22:27

Overview

This video provides a detailed analysis of the cryptocurrency market, with a primary focus on Bitcoin. The speaker reviews current market conditions, discusses the influence of traditional markets like the S&P 500, and analyzes on-chain data to predict future price movements. Key topics include the Russell 2000 index as an indicator for altcoins, historical price patterns, the impact of interest rate cuts, and potential Bitcoin price targets. The speaker also touches upon the gold market and the evolving role of the US dollar in the global economy.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin's All-Time High: Bitcoin has recently reached an all-time high, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market.
• Traditional Market Influence: The crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, is heavily influenced by traditional markets like the S&P 500, which is also setting new all-time highs.
• Russell 2000 as an Altcoin Indicator: The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, is presented as a key indicator for the performance of altcoins, as it reflects market risk appetite.
• On-Chain Analysis for Price Targets: The speaker utilizes on-chain metrics such as the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and MVRV to identify potential price targets and support levels for Bitcoin, suggesting targets around $135,000-$150,000.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate cuts, government treasury account balances (TGA), and bank leverage regulations (SLR) are identified as crucial macroeconomic factors that could drive further liquidity and potentially fuel a bull market.
• Gold Market Strength: The gold market is showing significant strength, not finding a top, and its rise is linked to a potential decline in confidence in US dollar-backed assets.
• Solana ETF Potential: The potential approval of a Solana ETF is highlighted as a short-term catalyst for Solana's price, though initial inflows might lead to a temporary sell-off.
• Upcoming Inflation Data: The speaker emphasizes the importance of upcoming inflation data (CPI) on October 15th, as it could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.

The video discusses two primary on-chain indicators for predicting Bitcoin's price targets:

• Short-Term Holder Realized Price: This metric represents the average price at which short-term investors (those holding for less than six months) have bought Bitcoin.
  • Price Targets/Zones:
    • A zone around $135,000 (representing a 40% profit for short-term holders).
    • A higher zone between $140,000 and $150,000 (considered a more extended profit zone).
• Top Cloud Price Models (incorporating multiple indicators like STH MVRV, AVWPR, MVRV, 200-week MA): This model aggregates various on-chain data points to assess when Bitcoin is considered "expensive."
  • Price Targets/Zones:
    • A first potential target around $133,000 (from MVRV).
    • A zone between $142,000 and $150,000 (from other components of the model).
    • A broader zone of $155,000 (from Aviv showing a higher value).

The speaker notes that historically, Bitcoin has not fully reached the upper bands of these on-chain models during previous bull market peaks, often only reaching about half of the indicated cloud. Therefore, these targets represent zones where profit-taking and a potential market top could occur.