This Big Think video explores whether the human brain, evolved for survival in a simpler world, is adequately equipped for navigating the complex risks of the modern age. Experts discuss the inherent emotional biases in human thinking and propose strategies for improving rationality and decision-making in areas such as careers, relationships, and responses to global challenges like climate change.
According to the transcript, Bayes' Rule is described as "provably the best way to think about evidence". It's presented as a superior alternative to the common approach of simply trying to explain new evidence with pre-existing beliefs. Instead of stopping after asking "Can this evidence be explained with my theory?", Bayes' Rule encourages also asking "Would it be explained better with some other theory, or maybe just as well with some other theory? Is this actually evidence for my theory?" Essentially, it's a formalization of the best way to reason about evidence and update confidence in beliefs when new information or experiences arise.
The video suggests two main strategies:
Take more time: Don't jump to conclusions based on initial emotional responses. Allow time—half an hour, an hour, a day, or more—for more considered thought.
Get more information: Actively seek information from diverse sources, not just those confirming existing beliefs. This helps counter the feeling-first bias by adding factual weight to the decision-making process.
