About this video

• Video Title: Gameweek 12 Pod FPL | The FPL Wire | Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26
• Channel: The FPL Wire - Fantasy Premier League
• Speakers: Zofar, Late Riser (LR), Bruss (Press)
• Duration: 02:16:16

Overview

This video is a Fantasy Premier League podcast episode discussing Gameweek 12. The hosts analyze player form, team schedules, potential transfers, and captaincy options leading up to a congested period of fixtures, with a particular focus on managing team rotation and utilizing chips like the Free Hit.

Key takeaways

• Upcoming Fixture Congestion: The period between Gameweek 12 and 16 is identified as particularly intense due to midweek games and European competitions, increasing the likelihood of player rotation.
• Chip Strategy: Gameweek 13 and 16 are highlighted as potential Free Hit windows, with discussions on the pros and cons of each, including considerations around captaincy and player availability.
• Player Analysis (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea): The hosts break down key players from top teams, discussing their form, fixture difficulty, minutes security, and suitability for FPL transfers, especially in light of injuries and upcoming schedules.
• Gabriel's Injury Impact: Gabriel's injury is discussed as a significant factor affecting Arsenal's defense and potentially increasing the minutes for other defenders like Timber.
• Captaincy Dilemma: Erling Haaland is the leading captaincy option due to his form and fixtures, but Saka and Salah are considered as alternative differentials, with the hosts weighing the risks and rewards.
• United Midfielders: With Casemiro's absence, Bruno Fernandes and Kobbie Mainoo are highlighted as attractive FPL options due to favorable fixtures and increased playing time.
• Defensive Options: Discussions on reliable defenders include Virgil van Dijk and Arsenal's Timber, comparing their FPL potential and contrasting them with cheaper options like Richards and Munoz.

For Manchester United, the players identified as most reliable for the upcoming fixtures, particularly due to favorable fixtures and expected minutes, are:

• Bruno Fernandes: He is considered a very good pick, consistently providing points and not blanking in recent games. His captaincy is also discussed as a viable option, especially given his good form and record against Everton.
• Kobbie Mainoo: With Casemiro's absence, Mainoo's minutes are expected to increase significantly, making him an attractive option. His FPL potential is considered high, especially with his good fixtures.
• Diogo Dalot: While United's defense is generally not considered the best, Dalot is mentioned as a potential robust pick at 4.5 million due to good fixtures and occasional threat on set pieces. His minutes are expected to be secure.

The injury to Gabriel is discussed as potentially impacting Arsenal's defenders in a few ways:

• Increased minutes for Timber: Gabriel's absence is seen as a net positive for Jurriën Timber's FPL prospects, as it might mean he plays more minutes and is less likely to be benched, especially in games where Arsenal needs a physically robust defender.
• Potential impact on clean sheet odds: While Gabriel is a key player, the hosts suggest that his absence might only marginally reduce Arsenal's clean sheet odds, as the team is generally defensively structured and not overly reliant on one individual.
• Consideration for other defenders: For those who might have double Arsenal defense, Gabriel's injury could lead to a decision between keeping Timber or switching to Virgil van Dijk. However, some hosts still lean towards Timber due to Arsenal being a better defensive unit overall compared to Liverpool, despite Van Dijk's potentially better FPL point-scoring routes.

The main arguments for using a Free Hit in Gameweek 13 versus Gameweek 16 are:

Arguments for Gameweek 13 Free Hit:

• Man City's Fixture: Manchester City's fixture against Leeds at home is considered a juicy prospect, potentially offering a high ceiling for their attackers like Haaland.
• Avoid Difficult Fixtures: It allows managers to navigate through a period where many popular teams (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool) have difficult fixtures or potential rotation issues due to European commitments.
• Potential for Early News: City's game is an early kickoff, which might allow for lineup leaks or news that could inform the Free Hit team selection.
• Holding onto Gabriel: If Gabriel's injury is short-term, a Gameweek 13 Free Hit allows managers to hold onto him, as they can sell him in a later gameweek if needed.

Arguments for Gameweek 16 Free Hit:

• Clearer Picture: By Gameweek 16, managers will have a better understanding of team form, player fitness, and potential rotation after navigating the previous congested weeks.
• Improved Fixtures for Some Teams: Teams like Brighton and Brentford have better fixtures in Gameweek 16, making them more appealing targets.
• Avoiding Transfers Before Free Hit: Using the Free Hit in Gameweek 16 allows managers to preserve their free transfers from Gameweeks 13, 14, and 15, potentially setting up their main team better for subsequent gameweeks.
• Opportunity to Offload Chelsea/Arsenal Assets: With Gabriel's injury and potential concerns around Chelsea's form and rotation, Gameweek 16 offers a chance to diversify away from these teams if necessary.
• More Reliable FPL Assets: Gameweek 16 might see more established FPL assets in better form or with more certainty of minutes, compared to the more uncertain landscape of Gameweek 13.
• Planning for AFCON: It aligns better with planning for players who might be heading to AFCON later, allowing for transfers to be made in Gameweek 17 rather than sacrificing the Free Hit earlier.

Arguments Against Using Free Hit in Either Week:

• Limited Value: The difference in points between a well-structured team and a Free Hit team might not be significant in either week, potentially leading to a "negative points on Free Hit" scenario if key players like Haaland perform exceptionally.
• Risk of Haaland Blank: Betting against Haaland in any gameweek carries significant risk, as he has high potential in most fixtures.
• Fixture Difficulty Variance: Fixture difficulty can be subjective, and what appears easy on paper might not translate to high FPL returns.