About this Video

• Video Title: George Friedman Unpacks Xi's Coalition of Anti-Western Powers
• Channel: Geopolitical Futures
• Speakers: Christian Smith, George Friedman
• Duration: 00:31:40

Introduction

This Geopolitical Futures podcast features a discussion between Christian Smith and George Friedman about the implications of recent summits and meetings involving leaders from China, Russia, India, and other nations. The conversation centers on whether these gatherings represent a genuine shift towards a new global order challenging the United States, or if they are primarily symbolic gestures.

Key Takeaways

• Economic Interdependence: Despite rhetoric suggesting a coalition against the West, India and China remain heavily economically dependent on the United States, making a sustained, effective alliance unlikely.
• National Interests Trumps Ideology: Unlike the Cold War, current geopolitical dynamics are driven by national self-interest rather than shared ideology, hindering the formation of a cohesive anti-Western bloc.
• Limited Capabilities: While some economic initiatives (e.g., new pipelines) are discussed, the feasibility and immediate impact are constrained by the economic challenges faced by China and Russia, and the inherent competition between India and China.
• Symbolic Gestures: The summits and meetings, including the victory parade, are largely symbolic displays of solidarity, lacking a strong foundation of shared interests and capabilities needed for a lasting alliance.
• Predictability in National Actions: Despite the perceived unpredictability of US trade policy, the actions of nations are largely predictable based on their economic needs and national interests. China's economic reliance on exports, and India's need for access to the American market, limit their options.

Iran's exclusion is explained by the fact that even Russia and China, the organizers of the meetings, were not willing to be seen associating closely with Iran. The speakers cite concerns about Iranian-linked terrorist groups and the potential for further alienating the United States as reasons for the exclusion. They note that neither Russia nor China benefit from being associated with a group deemed "outlaw" by many countries.

The speakers stated that even Russia and China were unwilling to be seen associating with Iran. Concerns included Iranian-linked terrorist groups and the potential for further alienating the United States, given the need for both Russia and China to resolve trade issues with the US. The speakers felt that including Iran would label the group as an "outlaw" organization rather than representing the "new global south".