How fast can Europe expand its nuclear arsenal?

About this Video

• Video Title: How fast can Europe expand its nuclear arsenal?
• Channel: Binkov's Battlegrounds
• Speakers: The video transcript does not name the speaker.
• Duration: 20:41

Introduction

This video explores the potential for Europe to expand its nuclear arsenal, focusing on the factors limiting expansion speed. It examines the current nuclear capabilities of France and the UK, discusses options for increasing their arsenals (qualitatively and quantitatively), and assesses the likelihood of other European countries pursuing nuclear weapons.

Key Takeaways

• Europe's current nuclear disadvantage: Europe possesses around 400 nuclear warheads compared to Russia's approximately 2500, creating a significant imbalance.
• UK's nuclear arsenal: The UK currently has around 250 warheads, with plans to increase this to 260 by the mid-2020s. Their delivery system relies heavily on leased US Trident missiles.
• France's nuclear arsenal: France possesses around 240 warheads, deployed on submarines and air-launched missiles (ASMPA). The ASMPA missile utilizes a variable-yield warhead.
• Expansion challenges: Expanding arsenals is constrained by the slow pace of warhead assembly (estimated at several to a dozen per year), the need for new delivery systems (which can take years to develop and deploy), and significant political and technological barriers to other European nations acquiring nuclear capabilities.
• Timeframe for expansion: Doubling the current nuclear arsenals of France and the UK seems unlikely before 2035, barring significant increases in political will, funding, and production capacity. Other European nations are unlikely to develop meaningful nuclear arsenals by 2035, or even by 2045.