I Ran the Numbers on The Trade Desk (And I’m Finally Buying)

About this video

• Video Title: I Ran the Numbers on The Trade Desk (And I’m Finally Buying)
• Channel: Dividend Compounders with Cheese
• Speakers: Aamos
• Duration: 28:26

Overview

This video provides an updated analysis of The Trade Desk (TTD), a software company specializing in advertising on the open internet. The speaker, Aamos, discusses the company's recent Q3 2025 financial performance, which exceeded expectations, and shares his revised price forecast. He acknowledges a slowdown in growth but highlights the company's strong financial position, high customer retention, and the potential impact of new leadership. The speaker also contrasts TTD with competitors like Amazon and discusses potential future valuations.

Key takeaways

• Strong Q3 Performance: The Trade Desk beat Q3 earnings and revenue expectations, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year.
• Financial Health: The company has a robust balance sheet with $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents against $375 million in debt, and generates significant free cash flow.
• Valuation Analysis: The speaker estimates TTD's current intrinsic value to be around $47.20 based on free cash flow projections and discusses potential future valuations based on earnings per share and PE ratios, suggesting it is currently undervalued.
• Competitive Landscape: Amazon's advertising business is identified as a significant threat due to its data advantage and ability to undercut TTD's pricing, potentially slowing growth.
• Growth Catalysts: The hiring of Anders Mortonson as Chief Revenue Officer, with a background at Google in digital advertising, is seen as a positive catalyst for future growth.
• Investment Thesis: Despite competitive pressures, the speaker is considering buying TTD stock, viewing it as a good, though not the best, deal in the market, and plans to invest "fun money" into it.