About this Video

• Video Title: I Spent $70,000 on this stock
• Channel: Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money
• Speakers: Jeremy Lefebvre, Tom Lee (mentioned), and Steve Leeman (mentioned)
• Duration: 00:29:46

Introduction

This video details Jeremy Lefebvre's $70,000 stock purchase this week, his reaction to a comment about market crash statistics, and his response to a Tom Lee CNBC interview clip. He also discusses Peter Lynch's insights on market volatility and shares his perspective on current market conditions and investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

• $70,000 Stock Portfolio Breakdown: Lefebvre details his purchases of AMD, Amazon, Cheesecake Factory, e.l.f. Cosmetics, Shopify, Estée Lauder, and Honest Company shares, explaining his rationale behind each investment.
• Market Outlook: He believes the market is poised for an upward trend unless significantly negative news emerges, emphasizing that current conditions don't necessarily signal a major crash.
• Irrelevance of Historical Market Crash Statistics: He argues against relying solely on historical statistics (like the seven-year market crash cycle) due to the evolving nature of the market. Recent market volatility, he claims, doesn't alter long-term probabilities.
• Peter Lynch's Investment Philosophy: Lefebvre highlights Peter Lynch's approach of focusing on company fundamentals (income statement, balance sheet, business model) during market downturns, referencing Lynch's example of investing in Taco Bell.
• Current Investment Strategy: He advocates for focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and not letting short-term market fluctuations dictate investment decisions. He recommends taking advantage of buying opportunities during market corrections, highlighting the potential for significant gains in the long run.

1. Jeremy Lefebvre's justifications for his stock purchases were as follows:

   • AMD: Priced for a worst-case scenario, with strong potential growth in the coming years due to increased demand for AI chips. The positive news this week about major companies continuing their AI chip investments bolstered his confidence.
   • Amazon: Considered an easy money play due to its strong market position and growth potential.
   • Cheesecake Factory (Cake): A long-term holding, with continued belief in the company's expansion opportunities. He aims to acquire as many shares as possible.
   • e.l.f. Cosmetics (ELF): The price of $50 was considered a joke, indicating undervaluation in his view.
   • Shopify: A relatively smaller buy, based on his overall assessment of the company's prospects.
   • Estée Lauder (EL): A large purchase made after observing the stock breaking $50; he believes the company is well-positioned for future growth due to a business turnaround and reduced future risk related to tariffs.
   • Honest Company (HNST): A smaller addition to his existing holdings in the company, with a positive outlook on its prospects.

2. Jeremy Lefebvre argued against the relevance of historical market crash statistics by stating that:

   • The market is constantly evolving and changing, making historical data less predictive.
   • The past 5 years have witnessed more market fluctuations than typical, including multiple corrections and smaller crashes, invalidating the seven-year cycle prediction.
   • Statistical probabilities remain consistent despite short-term market trends (using the roulette analogy). The increased volatility in recent years doesn't change the long-term probability of future market downturns. He presented historical data from 1971-1981 demonstrating significant volatility and multiple crashes within a decade, illustrating that periods of high and low volatility are common over longer time spans.

3. The video did not provide specifics from the Tom Lee CNBC interview clip, only that Lefebvre had recorded the full clip and would react to it. The content of Tom Lee's statements was not summarized in the transcript.

4. Jeremy Lefebvre's advice on investor reaction to current market conditions included:

   • Focus on Fundamentals: Prioritize thorough analysis of a company's financial health (income statement, balance sheet, business model, SWOT analysis) instead of reacting solely to short-term market movements.
   • Long-Term Perspective: Emphasize long-term investment strategies over short-term speculation.
   • Embrace Opportunities: View market corrections and crashes as buying opportunities for strong companies, rather than reasons for fear and inaction. He stressed that being greedy and waiting for lower prices can cause investors to miss significant profit opportunities.
   • Avoid Fear-Based Decisions: Don't let fear or the potential for further market declines paralyze your investment decisions. Make investment choices based on whether a stock is a good deal and aligns with your assessment of the company's long-term prospects.