In 5 Months This Will All Be Over.

About this Video

• Video Title: In 5 Months This Will All Be Over.
• Channel: Bravos Research
• Speakers: (Not specified in transcript)
• Duration: 00:08:43

Introduction

This video analyzes the United States yield curve and its historical relationship with economic recessions. The speaker discusses the current steepening of the yield curve and explores whether this signals an impending recession or if the yield curve's predictive power has failed.

Key Takeaways

• The yield curve's steepening has historically preceded US recessions within 12 months.
• Currently, the yield curve steepened in mid-2024, but a recession hasn't followed. Real GDP growth remains solid, and unemployment is low.
• The speaker explores two reasons why a recession has been avoided so far: a historically tight job market in late 2022 and extremely high corporate profit margins.
• While the job market has weakened since 2022, it remains better than pre-pandemic levels. Corporate profit margins, though potentially peaking, are still high.
• The speaker acknowledges uncertainty, emphasizing that the situation could change, and the analysis is subject to revision if new data emerges. They also mention their investment strategy based on their prediction.