About this Video

• Video Title: John Deere Classic | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data - DFS Golf & DraftKings
• Channel: RickRunGood
• Speakers: Rick
• Duration: 00:37:35

Introduction

This video provides a fantasy golf preview and picks for the John Deere Classic. The speaker, Rick, analyzes the course, key stats, and player performance data to offer insights and recommendations for DraftKings DFS.

Key Takeaways

• Course Characteristics: TPC Deere Run prioritizes accuracy over power. Fairway hits and greens in regulation are crucial for success. Distance is only significantly advantageous on two holes.
• Top Tier Players: Ben Griffin is highlighted as a top pick due to his recent strong performance and course history. Jason Day and JT Poston are also considered but with caveats regarding pricing and consistency.
• Mid-Tier Players: Davis Thompson (defending champion) is cautioned against due to putting struggles. Denny McCarthy is recommended for his strong putting on this course. Jake Knap and Chris Kirk are discussed as viable options. Michael Thorbjornson is noted for his rising odds and potential. Lucas Glover is suggested due to his consistent performance at specific courses, including TPC Deere Run.
• Lower Tier Players: Several players in the 7K and 6K ranges are discussed, emphasizing the need for careful consideration and a balance between high-risk/high-reward and safer picks. The speaker mentions several players in these ranges and their respective strengths and weaknesses.
• Custom Model: A custom model incorporating weighted stats (strokes gained, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, approach shots, putting, and course history) is used to rank players and inform the picks.

Based solely on the provided transcript, here's a summary of Rick's DFS picks by price range, remembering that his opinions are influenced by data and subject to change:

10K Range:

• Ben Griffin: Rick's top pick due to consistently strong recent performance and a previous top-5 finish at TPC Deere Run. He emphasizes Griffin's overall game improvement.
• Jason Day: Liked but with reservations about his high price tag and past performance at this price point. His consistent finishes and course experience are noted as positives.
• JT Poston: Liked, but his putting consistency is a concern.

9K Range:

• Denny McCarthy: Highlighted for his excellent putting performance at TPC Deere Run.
• Jake Knap: A strong option due to his ability to adjust his shots for accuracy and recent good putting.
• Chris Kirk: Cautiously optimistic due to recent strong play despite a recent close loss and high emotional week
• Michael Thorbjornson: Rick is intrigued by his unexpectedly high odds and recent improvements.
• Lucas Glover: A consistent performer at certain courses, including this one.

8K Range:

• Luke Clanton: Considered undervalued given his talent and past performance at the course.
• Bud Cauley: A solid option, although his recent play has been less consistent than previously.
• Mark Hubbard: Mentioned as a strong option and one that Rick should have pointed out earlier in the video.

7K Range:

• Nico Echaria: High-variance player with potential for high-end finishes due to strong ball-striking.
• Kevin Roy: Quietly consistent, with recent top-8 finishes and solid stats.
• Cam Champ: Recommended to select early due to potential but acknowledges that he rarely has prolonged success.
• Matt McCarty: Rick expresses continued belief in this player despite inconsistent results.
• Jackson Suber: A talented young player showing improvement.

6K Range:

• Chris Ventura: Shows potential despite a missed cut in the past.
• Philip Nolles: A lower-priced option with recent improvement.
• Aaron Wise: A personal pick because Rick roots for him. Performance is less impressive.

Rick also mentions several other players, but doesn't explicitly endorse them as DFS plays. He frequently emphasizes that his picks are data-driven and that circumstances might change, especially as the event draws closer and ownership projections become clearer.

Based on the transcript, Rick's top outright picks, or those he seems most confident in winning the tournament, are:

1. Ben Griffin: He repeatedly emphasizes Griffin's strong recent form, course history, and overall game improvement, making him Rick's top overall pick.

2. Michael Thorbjornson: While not as strongly emphasized as Griffin, Rick is notably surprised and intrigued by Thorbjornson's high odds and improved play, suggesting he sees significant upside and potential for a win.

While Rick discusses many players and their potential, these two stand out as his most likely outright winners according to his analysis in the transcript. He expresses more cautious optimism about others.