Markets Will Be Up a Year From Now, Rosenberg Says

About this Video

• Video Title: Markets Will Be Up a Year From Now, Rosenberg Says
• Channel: Bloomberg Television
• Speakers: David Rosenberg, Sonali, Katie, Matt
• Duration: 00:11:10

Introduction

This Bloomberg Television segment discusses the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the global market and the potential future trajectory of the stock market. David Rosenberg, a financial expert, argues that while the current market situation is uncertain, a 12-month outlook suggests the market will likely be up.

Key Takeaways

• Trump's tariff strategy: The discussion centers on whether President Trump's tariffs are intended to raise funds or serve as a negotiating tactic. Rosenberg suggests the underlying issue is far deeper than tariffs, focusing on trade surpluses against the United States.
• Market's current state: Despite recent market declines, valuations remain above the long-term average, indicating the market is not yet cheap. The expert advises caution and suggests moving to safer havens like cash, farms, and gold.
• 12-month market outlook: Rosenberg predicts that the market will be up in a year's time, drawing parallels to the 2009 market downturn where a long-term perspective yielded positive returns. He cautions that bottom-picking is difficult, but advises patience for those with a 12-month perspective and liquidity.
• Uncertainty and potential for overshoot: The panel acknowledges significant uncertainty due to retaliatory measures and the potential for a global trade war. Rosenberg points out that markets tend to overshoot in both directions, hinting that a potential overreaction to the current situation could lead to a bullish market in the long term.
• Recession probabilities: While some economists forecast high probabilities of a recession (35-45%), the discussion points out the difficulty in accurately predicting the extent of a potential downturn. The expert emphasizes the significance of paying attention to sectors already in bear market territory.