Mitä tiedämme ilmastonmuutoksesta 2016

About this Video

• Video Title: Mitä tiedämme ilmastonmuutoksesta 2016
• Channel: Ilmasto Nyt
• Speakers: Jouni Räisänen, Markku Kulmala, Petter Taalas
• Duration: 00:14:20

Introduction

This video from Ilmasto Nyt presents a discussion from 2016 on the state of climate change knowledge. Three experts—Jouni Räisänen, Markku Kulmala, and Petter Taalas—discuss what is known about climate change, both factually and probabilistically, and what uncertainties remain. The video aims to clarify the scientific understanding of climate change at the time and highlight both certainties and areas requiring further research.

Key Takeaways

• Scientific Certainty: The increase in greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide and methane) is causing global warming, supported by physics and observed temperature increases. This warming trend cannot be explained solely by natural factors; human activity is the primary cause. Further warming is inevitable unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced. Rising temperatures lead to more frequent heat waves, less frequent cold spells, reduced snow and ice, and more severe rainfall events.
• Observed Changes: Significant changes are already happening, including rising temperatures (exceeding the 1-degree warming limit by 2016), altered precipitation patterns (leading to more floods and droughts), sea level rise (about 20 centimeters), and significant Arctic ice melt. Mountain glacier melting is reducing freshwater supplies.
• Uncertainties Remain: While the basic science is clear, there are uncertainties. Precise temperature increases are difficult to predict because of the complexity of cloud behavior. Local climate changes are harder to predict than global averages. The future severity of storms and the rate of sea level rise are also uncertain, partially due to the unpredictable behavior of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The impact of the release of methane from melting permafrost is unknown.
• The Need for Action: Despite uncertainties, the probability of undesirable climate change outcomes is high enough to necessitate immediate action, including lifestyle changes to reduce consumption and fossil fuel use.
• Modeling and Research: Climate models are improving but still approximate, with limitations in simulating certain phenomena. Increased computing power and research focusing on improving model resolutions, especially cloud physics and sea-ice modeling, are needed to improve predictions.