This video discusses the speaker's perspective on the current stock market conditions, specifically focusing on the NASDAQ's shakiness and upcoming Jerome Powell's speech. The speaker also analyzes Estee Lauder's (EL) earnings and reveals a new hedge against a specific stock, explaining the rationale behind this strategy.
Market Shakiness: The speaker expresses concern about the NASDAQ's recent downturn, linking it to anticipation surrounding Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The timing of the speech on a Friday, coinciding with options expiration, is highlighted as a factor contributing to potential market volatility.
Estee Lauder (EL) Analysis: The speaker is bullish on EL, predicting a price range of $200-$300 in the next 36 months based on their financial outlook and cost-cutting measures. Despite a recent rough year, the expectation of returning revenue growth is seen as a catalyst for improved profitability. The speaker notes that the stock price often bottoms before concrete evidence of business turnaround.
Duolingo (DUOL) Hedge: The speaker reveals a hedge against Duolingo, explaining that the position is less than 1% of their portfolio and serves as protection against potential market downside. The rationale is based on the belief that Duolingo's hype cycle has ended, leading to slower future revenue growth and a potential stock price decrease. The speaker acknowledges the possibility of the hedge expiring worthless but emphasizes that this risk is mitigated by the overall portfolio's performance.
