About this video

• Video Title: NFL Week 10 Preview: Upset Picks, Key Matchups & Hail Mary Predictions
• Channel: Yahoo! Sports
• Speakers: Nate Ty, Charles McDonald
• Duration: 01:11:33

Overview

This video provides a preview of NFL Week 10 matchups, offering insights into key games, potential upsets, and bold predictions. Hosts Nate Ty and Charles McDonald analyze offensive and defensive strategies, player injuries, and statistical trends to offer their perspectives on upcoming games.

Key takeaways

• Patriots vs. Buccaneers: The hosts predict the Patriots will win a close game, highlighting Drake May's scrambling ability against a Buccaneers defense that struggles with mobile quarterbacks. They also discuss the Patriots' potential to exploit the Buccaneers' weakness in defending running back targets.
• Steelers vs. Chargers: Both hosts pick the Steelers to win, emphasizing the Chargers' battered offensive line as a major vulnerability against the Steelers' defensive talent, particularly T.J. Watt.
• Eagles vs. Packers: The hosts lean towards the Packers, believing their offense can exploit the Eagles' defense, especially if they avoid turnovers and maintain consistency. They also note the Eagles' defensive strengths and weaknesses, particularly their run defense.
• Rams vs. 49ers: The Rams are favored due to the 49ers' significant injury concerns, particularly on defense. The Rams' strong run game and red zone efficiency are highlighted as key advantages.
• Hail Mary Predictions: Charles McDonald predicts a Seahawks shutout against the Cardinals, while Nate Ty predicts Alec Pierce of the Colts to exceed 100 receiving yards against the Falcons.

Here are the key metrics mentioned for each NFL team in the transcript:

New England Patriots

• Injuries: Quan Booty (hamstring), Garrett Bradberry (hip), Rhamondre Stevenson (toe), Hassan Ratic (did not practice).
• Offense: One of the worst rushing offenses against strong rushing defenses.
• Drake May: High potential for scramble success against Tampa Bay's defense, one of the best scrambling quarterbacks, 18.8 EPA on scrambles this year.
• Offensive Line: Not very good, leading to high sack rate.
• Run Defense: 4th in DVOA.
• Overall Defense: 25th overall in DVOA.
• Pass Defense: 28th against the pass.
• Schedule Difficulty (Defense): Faced the 30th easiest schedule per DVOA.
• Receiving Yards per route run for RBs: 5th at 1.39.
• Designed Run Rate (2021 vs. Bucs): 17.8% on early downs.
• M. Jones (2021 vs. Bucs): 5.2 A do yards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Defense:
  • Against Runs (Base Defense, Early Downs): 5th in rushing success rate.
  • Against Passes (Base Defense, Early Downs): 25th in passing success rate allowed, allowing 9.7 net yards per attempt (30th in NFL).
  • Yards per Play Allowed (Base Defense, Early Downs): 6.6 yards (dead last).
  • EPA per Play Allowed (Base Defense, Early Downs): 30th.
  • EPA per Pass Allowed (Base Defense, Early Downs): 32nd.
  • Explosive Passes Allowed (Base Defense, Early Downs): 26th.
  • Blitzing: More on late downs.
  • Early Down Coverage: Cover 3 quarters, cover 2, man.
  • Late Down Coverage: Cover 3, man, cover zero.
  • Against Running Back Targets: Allowing almost 2 yards per route run (very bad).
• Offense:
  • Since Week 6: 30th in success rate on offensive dropbacks, 29th overall in success rate.
  • Average Yards per Drive: 24 yards (29th).
  • First Downs per Drive: 1.4 (30th).
  • Offensive Line: Injuries are a big factor.
  • Run Game: Not very good.
• Baker Mayfield: 52% completion rate vs. man coverage (2nd worst), 4.3 yards per attempt vs. man coverage (tied for lowest), worst explosive play rate vs. man coverage.
• Injuries: Luke Getek (limited participant), Mike Evans (out), Chris Godwin (did not participate).
• Post-Buy Performance: Historically, Todd Bowles' teams have seen varied results after a bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Average Starting Field Position (Offense): 1st in the league.
• Average Starting Field Position (Defense): 2nd in the league.
• Offense: Considered "mid" in a recent game, wants to run the ball, not a team that wants long down-and-distances.
• Passing Game: Aaron Rodgers has done some nice things, but the team doesn't want to rely heavily on it.
• Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed: One of the worst in the league (42.3%).
• Run Defense vs. Chargers: Chargers' interior defense is considered below average (23rd in successful play rate on rush attempts, 21st in EPA per rush on defense).
• Offensive Line Injuries: Isaac Seumalo (missed practice), concerns about Bobby Hart and Jamari Sier starting.
• TJ Watt Matchup: Expected to exploit Bobby Hart and Sier.
• Kyle Dugger Acquisition: Played a lot last week, adds an interesting piece.
• Peppers Injury: Still hurt with a quad.
• Derek Watt: Had some decent moments.
• Defense: Described as "getable" but also inconsistent.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Defense:
  • Run Defense: Below average (23rd in successful play rate on rush attempts, 21st in EPA per rush on defense).
  • Coverage Philosophy: Very shell-like, bend-don't-break, quarter shell focus.
  • Tackling: Good tackling team, rally to the ball.
  • Defending Throws Under 10 Air Yards: 9th in success rate.
  • Allowing Explosives: Slightly above average.
  • Allowing YAC: Efficient, but not explosive.
  • Tier Tart Impact: Chargers are top 10 in rushing success rate allowed when he's on the field (66%). When he's off, they allow 48.3% (worst in NFL).
• Offense:
  • Passing Game: Has had cool stretches, talented receiving corps, Justin Herbert playing aggressively.
  • Third Down Conversion Rate: Highest in the league (almost 50%).
  • Offensive Line: Battered, Joel Otton IR, multiple players making unexpected starts (e.g., Bobby Hart, Jamari Sier).
  • Justin Herbert: Needs protection, faces TJ Watt and Steelers' defensive line.
  • Receiving Talent: Awesome.
• Injuries: Joel Otton (IR), Highsmith (ankle again), K.J. Wright (hurt).

Philadelphia Eagles

• Offense:
  • AJ Brown: Started to find groove again even without him.
  • Saquon Barkley: 4th in EPA per rush, 13th in successful play rate on rush, 10th overall in EPA per play on offense. Still picking up big plays.
  • Jalen Hurts: High sack rate, invites pressure, holds the ball.
  • Jumbo Package: Inspired thing, helps against edge groups.
  • Yards Before Contact (Run Game): 1.75 yards this year (down from 2.34 last year).
  • Yards After Contact (Run Game): 2.91 (same as last year).
  • Under Center Usage: More this year.
  • Red Zone Success Rate: High.
• Defense:
  • Team Speed: Good enough to keep up with scrambling quarterbacks.
  • Micah Parsons: Expected to disrupt, potentially pressure Hurts.
  • Against the Run: 31st in average distance to go on third down (6.2 yards). 31st in run stuff rate. 26th in early down rushing success rate allowed.
  • Slot Coverage: Michael Carter acquisition potentially shores up weakness.
  • Cooper DeJean: Strong tackler, versatile (safety, slot, outside).
• Injuries: AJ Brown (missing at the time of recording), Jaylen Phillips (acquired, new), Nolan Smith (potentially back).

Green Bay Packers

• Defense:
  • Against Run (Panthers game): Allowed 102 yards.
  • Against Pass (Panthers game): Specific stats not recalled, but Panthers' passing game was weak.
  • Tackling: One of the best tackling teams in the NFL.
  • Coverage: Heavy zone team.
  • Overall: Played better recently, but still has exploitable areas.
  • Edges: Potentially light weight-wise.
  • Week 10 Matchup: Eagles' outside runs exploited aggressiveness/lightness.
• Offense:
  • Jordan Love: Had frustrating moments in red zone (20% success rate last week), but generally has had good stretches.
  • Turnovers: Low number of turnovers (5).
  • EPA per Dropback: 1st in the league.
  • Percentage of Plays for Zero Yards: 1st.
  • Sack Rate: 4th.
  • Average Distance on 3rd Down to 1st Down: 2nd.
  • Red Zone Performance: Top in the league.
  • Early Down Success Rate: 9th.
  • Yards per Run: 23rd.
  • Pace: Jab, jab, jab, then throws haymakers.
  • Tucker Kraft: Out for the season.
  • Receivers: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Bo Melton.
  • Tight Ends: Luke Musgrave (can run, not as good as Kraft).
• Injuries: Tucker Kraft (out), other receivers uncertain.

Los Angeles Rams

• Offense:
  • Red Zone TD Rate: 56% (2nd in the league).
  • Success Rate: 3rd overall.
  • Run Game: Can really run the ball.
  • Zone Runs: Much improved this year, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, 62% success rate, 20.7% explosive run rate on outside zones.
  • Formations: More under center, new formations, wing/bunch looks.
  • Matthew Stafford: MVP level quarterback.
• Defense:
  • Red Zone TD Rate Allowed: 56% (31st in the league).
  • Dime Usage: Highest rate in the NFL.
• Injuries: Puka Nacua (expected back), Cooper Kupp (out for season), Mike Williams (out for season).

San Francisco 49ers

• Offense:
  • Success Rate: 24th overall.
  • Christian McCaffrey: 4th in EPA per rush, 13th in successful play rate on rush, 10th overall in EPA per play on offense.
  • Brock Purdy: Playing well.
  • Kyle Shanahan: Always has something up his sleeve, weapons available.
• Defense:
  • Red Zone TD Rate Allowed: 56% (31st).
  • Against Zone Runs: 31st in success rate allowed (48.1%), 27th in EPA per run allowed.
  • Fred Warner: Out for the season.
  • Malik Willis: Addition to defense.
  • Run Defense: Bad, especially with injuries.
  • Michael Williams: Run-plugging defensive end, out.
  • Injuries: Fred Warner (out), Michael Williams (out), potentially others.

Arizona Cardinals

• Quarterback Situation: Jacob Brissett is competent, but the team's QB situation is uncertain.
• Defense:
  • Overall: 10th in DVOA, 8th in weighted DVOA.
  • Run Defense: Good all year.
  • Walter Nolan: Highly talented first-round pick.
  • Zane Collins: Promising player.
  • Explosive Plays Allowed: Seattle doesn't allow many.
  • Against Rush: 1st.

Atlanta Falcons

• Offense: Sneakily has a fairly bad offense this season.
• Defense: Undersized and potentially light in the pants against Rams' outside zone runs.

Chicago Bears

• JJ McCarthy: Media creating expectations not yet met, considered a project, has not yet lived up to hype.

Denver Broncos

• Defense: Faced a relatively easy schedule.

Detroit Lions

• O-Line: Questionable performance against Steelers defense.

Indianapolis Colts

• Alec Pierce: Top five in explosive receptions per route run, developed a real route tree, expected to have a big game against Falcons due to speed/size mismatch.
• Darius Slayton: Was a player the Jets were considering.
• AD Mitchell: Moved on from by the Colts.
• Garrett Wilson: Teammate of AD Mitchell with the Jets.

New York Jets

• Garrett Wilson: Receiver with AD Mitchell.
• Tight Ends: Interesting group.

Seattle Seahawks

• Offense: Expected to perform well against Cardinals defense.
• Defense:
  • Overall: Has been playing better recently.
  • Explosive Plays Allowed: Don't allow many.
  • Against Rush: 1st.

Washington Commanders

• Offense: All over the place right now.
• Defense: Faced a very easy schedule.