About this Video

• Video Title: PGA Championship BEST BETS! Quail Hollow Picks & Predictions | The Action Network Podcast
• Channel: The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips
• Speakers: Mike Calibies, Spencer Aguiar, Kyle Murray
• Duration: 00:24:16

Introduction

This podcast episode discusses betting strategies for the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. The hosts analyze the tournament, focusing on identifying value bets based on player performance, course characteristics, and model predictions.

Key Takeaways

• Top-heavy board: The betting odds heavily favor a few top golfers (Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau), creating potential value in betting on longshots.
• Course analysis: Quail Hollow's characteristics, including Bermuda grass conditions and potential rain, significantly impact player performance and betting strategies. Carry distance is a crucial factor.
• Value betting: The podcast emphasizes identifying value bets by looking beyond the top favorites and considering players with strong metrics but less favorable odds.
• Specific player recommendations: The hosts offer several betting suggestions, including Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and longshots like Cory Connors and Min Woo Lee. They also discuss head-to-head matchups and top-10/top-20 finishes.
• Model-driven analysis: The discussion is heavily influenced by the hosts' statistical models, providing a data-driven approach to betting decisions.

The following golfers were mentioned in the transcript:

• Scotty Scheffler
• Rory McIlroy
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Xander Schauffele
• Ludvig Aberg
• Sepp Straka
• Cory Connors
• Min Woo Lee
• John Rahm
• Collin Morikawa
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Keith Mitchell
• Keegan Bradley
• Davis Thompson
• Thorbjorn Olesen
• Bud Cauley
• Lucas Glover

The podcast hosts provided numerous betting suggestions, but it's crucial to remember these are opinions based on their models and analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. They didn't explicitly state "I'm placing this bet," but rather suggested bets based on perceived value. Here's a summary of their picks, categorized for clarity:

High-Value/Favorite Tier (with caveats):

• Bryson DeChambeau: Considered a bettable option at odds that had drifted, particularly if found at 14-to-1 or higher.
• Rory McIlroy & Scotty Scheffler: While acknowledging their high odds (around 5-to-1), they were considered in the models, but the hosts seemed to lean more towards finding value elsewhere.

Mid-Tier/Longshot Picks:

• Xander Schauffele: Highlighted as a strong value bet at 22-to-1 due to his historical performance at Quail Hollow and his recent return to form. They also noted his 7-to-2 odds to miss the cut.
• Cory Connors: Specifically recommended at 70-to-1 (or lower odds if available elsewhere), due to strong recent metrics despite a less-than-stellar win equity.
• Min Woo Lee: Described as a "boomer bust" pick at 100-to-1; the hosts recommended focusing on top-5 or top-10 finishes rather than an outright win.

Additional Longshot Suggestions (mostly top-20 or top-10 bets):

• Min Woo Lee: Suggested for a top-10 finish at +650.
• Keith Mitchell: Suggested for a top-20 finish at +350.
• Keegan Bradley: Suggested for a top-20 finish at +400.
• Davis Thompson: Suggested for a top-20 finish at +400.

Head-to-Head Pick:

• Bud Cauley (-120) over Lucas Glover: This pick was based on Cauley's perceived higher safety and stronger profile in the model compared to Glover, particularly concerning carry distance and putting.

Additional Outright Bets Mentioned (but with less emphasis):

• John Rahm: Mentioned as an outright bet at 18-to-1.
• Collin Morikawa: Mentioned as an outright bet.
• Hideki Matsuyama: Mentioned as an outright bet.

Important Note: The hosts frequently emphasized the use of their models and the importance of evaluating odds across different sportsbooks. They didn't provide exact amounts wagered or a single, definitive "best bet." Their suggestions should be seen as informed opinions based on statistical analysis, not guarantees of success.

The podcast hosts didn't declare any single "best bet," as their recommendations were nuanced and depended on individual risk tolerance and access to varying odds across different sportsbooks. However, based on their discussion, here are the picks that received the strongest emphasis, categorized by risk level:

Lower Risk (but potentially lower reward):

• Xander Schauffele: Consistently highlighted as a strong value play due to his historical performance at Quail Hollow and improving form, particularly at the 22-to-1 odds mentioned.

Medium Risk (higher reward potential):

• Bryson DeChambeau: Presented as a bettable option if his odds dropped to 14-to-1 or lower, reflecting a significant shift from the opening odds.

Higher Risk (highest reward potential, but significant chance of loss):

• Cory Connors: Recommended at 70-to-1 (or potentially lower), this is a long shot bet that emphasizes the value proposition despite a lower likelihood of winning.
• Min Woo Lee: A high-risk, high-reward pick, suggested for top 5 or top 10 finishes rather than an outright win due to inconsistent recent form.

It's crucial to understand that the hosts repeatedly cautioned against solely relying on any single pick. Their approach emphasized using statistical models, comparing odds across various books, and diversifying bets across different players and bet types (outright win, top-10, top-20, head-to-head). The "best bet" is subjective and depends on your individual risk profile and betting strategy.

The podcast hosts didn't definitively declare any single "best bet," instead offering a range of suggestions based on their models and risk assessment. Here's a breakdown separating their picks into what they considered best bets (higher probability of profit, but potentially lower payout) and long shots (lower probability of profit, but significantly higher payout potential):

Best Bets (lower risk, potentially lower reward):

• Xander Schauffele: Consistently recommended, with emphasis on his strong historical data at Quail Hollow and his improving form. The 22-to-1 odds quoted were cited as a good value.

Long Shots (higher risk, higher potential reward):

• Cory Connors: Specifically highlighted at 70-to-1 (or lower if found at other books), reflecting a significant value proposition despite a lower probability of victory.
• Min Woo Lee: Presented as a "boomer bust" type of player. His 100-to-1 odds made him a very high-risk, high-reward option. The hosts advised focusing on top-5 or top-10 finishes rather than an outright win.
• Other Long Shots: The hosts also discussed a few other long shot bets at the end, mentioning John Rahm, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama, but with less emphasis than Connors or Lee. Several additional long shot bets were recommended specifically for top-20 or top-10 finishes rather than outright wins. These included Keith Mitchell, Keegan Bradley, and Davis Thompson.

Important Note: The "best" and "long shot" categorizations are subjective and based on the hosts' interpretation of their models and odds. Their approach was not to simply pick a single "best" bet, but to present a range of options suited for different risk tolerances and betting strategies. Remember that all gambling carries risk, and there's no guarantee of profit.