About this Video

• Video Title: PGA DFS & Betting | THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP | 7/15 - The Golf Pro Betting Show
• Channel: Run Pure Sports | We Build Winners. DFS & Bets
• Speakers: Keith Stewart, Chris
• Duration: 01:08:27

Introduction

This video is a discussion between Keith Stewart and Chris about the PGA Open Championship, focusing on DFS (daily fantasy sports) and betting strategies. They analyze player performance, course characteristics, and betting odds to predict potential winners and develop optimal DFS lineups.

Key Takeaways

• Course Characteristics: The speakers discuss how the Port Rush course differs from previous Open Championship venues, emphasizing its similarity to American-style courses due to its elevated greens, firm conditions, and less reliance on a ground game. This favors players with strong iron play and approach shots.

• Player Selection: They analyze various golfers, focusing on their approach play, ability to hit greens in regulation, and short game skills. They highlight the importance of accuracy off the tee given the course's narrow fairways and penal rough.

• Betting and DFS Strategies: The discussion touches upon utilizing DFS pricing to build value-based lineups, considering both established stars and lesser-known players with strong current form. The importance of considering players' performance in similar courses and conditions is emphasized. They also discuss the potential for significant payouts from long-shot bets, particularly in golf.

• AM vs PM Wave Advantage: They consider the potential impact of weather conditions on different tee times, suggesting a possible advantage for players teeing off in the morning.

• Risk Assessment: The speakers repeatedly discuss the risk involved in choosing players, noting that even top-ranked players can have off days, especially in major championships. They emphasize the need to choose players who can minimize costly mistakes.

The speakers discuss many golfers, expressing varying degrees of preference. They don't explicitly declare definitive "likes" for all mentioned, but here's a summary based on their discussion:

High Preference/Strong Contenders:

• Jon Rahm: Frequently mentioned as a top contender due to his overall game and major championship experience.
• Scottie Scheffler: Considered a top choice, though his high price point is a factor. His consistent performance and ability to minimize mistakes are noted.
• Matt Fitzpatrick: Highlighted for his strong iron play and recent performance.
• Viktor Hovland: Praised for his approach play and current form.
• Tyrrell Hatton: Liked for his consistent major championship play and accuracy.

Moderate Preference/Potential Picks:

• Rory McIlroy: Discussed extensively, acknowledging his talent and local knowledge but also expressing some reservations due to his recent performance inconsistencies.
• Shane Lowry: Similar to McIlroy, his past performance at Port Rush is noted, but his recent form is a concern.
• Jordan Spieth: His creativity and short game are mentioned as positives, but his putting is a potential weakness.
• Justin Rose: His experience in major championships and recent strong performances are highlighted.
• Sam Burns: His strong ball-striking ability is noted, but inconsistent driving accuracy is a concern.
• Ben Griffin: High value pick considered strong due to recent major performances.

Low Preference/Less Favorable:

• Bryson DeChambeau: His approach play is considered a significant weakness for this course.
• Keegan Bradley: While his short game is strong, his Open Championship record is poor. His current form and Rader Cup captaincy are discussed, but his Open record remains a concern.
• Brooks Koepka: While acknowledging his major championship reputation, his recent poor form is a significant drawback.

Other Mentioned Golfers: Many other golfers are mentioned briefly, with no strong indication of preference, either positive or negative. These include players like Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott, and others in the 7K-8K DraftKings price range. The speakers often talk about the overall value of many players in that range.

It is important to remember that the discussion is nuanced. The speakers' preferences are influenced by a multitude of factors including current form, course suitability, and DFS pricing strategies.

The speakers don't offer a final, definitive DFS lineup. Instead, they discuss various players and strategies for constructing a lineup, emphasizing value and risk assessment. Their preferred DFS plays are scattered throughout the conversation and often contingent upon specific factors, such as pricing and lineup construction. Here's a summary:

High-Value Plays (Sub-8K Range on DraftKings):

• Viktor Hovland: Consistently praised for his approach play and current form; represents a strong value pick compared to higher-priced players.
• Tyrrell Hatton: His consistent performance and accuracy make him a valuable option.
• Matt Fitzpatrick: A solid pick due to his strong iron play and recent performance.
• Ben Griffin: Mentioned repeatedly for his performance in majors at a lower price point, providing excellent value.
• Sam Burns: Despite some driving inconsistencies, his strong ball-striking and birdie-making potential make him a viable option in the sub-8K range.
• Justin Rose: His experience and recent form make him attractive at a lower price point.
• Hideki Matsuyama: His exceptional short game and approach play are deemed valuable, despite being in the 7K range, which is sometimes considered expensive.
• Marco Penge: Highlighted as a "monster" off the tee, representing potentially high upside despite his relative anonymity.
• Jordan Smith: Mentioned as a solid option with strong iron play and current form.
• Antoine Rozner: Another option identified for solid iron play.

Stud Plays (Higher Price Point):

• Jon Rahm: Frequently discussed as a top-tier player, but his high price point makes him a risky play unless other lineup choices compensate for the cost.
• Scottie Scheffler: Considered a top contender, but his high cost requires careful lineup construction to avoid sacrificing value elsewhere.
• Rory McIlroy: His local knowledge and talent make him a consideration, but his inconsistent form is a major concern at his high price.

Overall Strategy:

The speakers repeatedly emphasize constructing a balanced lineup, combining high-value lower-priced players with one or two higher-priced "stud" players. They advocate for a strategy focused on choosing players who are likely to minimize mistakes and perform consistently in challenging conditions. They mention the majority of successful lineups consist of 70% of players under 8K, further emphasizing the need to seek value in lower priced players.

Important Note: The specific players and strategies are subject to change based on the ever-shifting dynamics of DFS and the real-time information available during the tournament. This analysis is strictly based on what is stated in the transcript.