This video is a discussion between Keith Stewart and Chris about the PGA Open Championship, focusing on DFS (daily fantasy sports) and betting strategies. They analyze player performance, course characteristics, and betting odds to predict potential winners and develop optimal DFS lineups.
Course Characteristics: The speakers discuss how the Port Rush course differs from previous Open Championship venues, emphasizing its similarity to American-style courses due to its elevated greens, firm conditions, and less reliance on a ground game. This favors players with strong iron play and approach shots.
Player Selection: They analyze various golfers, focusing on their approach play, ability to hit greens in regulation, and short game skills. They highlight the importance of accuracy off the tee given the course's narrow fairways and penal rough.
Betting and DFS Strategies: The discussion touches upon utilizing DFS pricing to build value-based lineups, considering both established stars and lesser-known players with strong current form. The importance of considering players' performance in similar courses and conditions is emphasized. They also discuss the potential for significant payouts from long-shot bets, particularly in golf.
AM vs PM Wave Advantage: They consider the potential impact of weather conditions on different tee times, suggesting a possible advantage for players teeing off in the morning.
Risk Assessment: The speakers repeatedly discuss the risk involved in choosing players, noting that even top-ranked players can have off days, especially in major championships. They emphasize the need to choose players who can minimize costly mistakes.
The speakers discuss many golfers, expressing varying degrees of preference. They don't explicitly declare definitive "likes" for all mentioned, but here's a summary based on their discussion:
High Preference/Strong Contenders:
Moderate Preference/Potential Picks:
Low Preference/Less Favorable:
Other Mentioned Golfers: Many other golfers are mentioned briefly, with no strong indication of preference, either positive or negative. These include players like Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott, and others in the 7K-8K DraftKings price range. The speakers often talk about the overall value of many players in that range.
It is important to remember that the discussion is nuanced. The speakers' preferences are influenced by a multitude of factors including current form, course suitability, and DFS pricing strategies.
The speakers don't offer a final, definitive DFS lineup. Instead, they discuss various players and strategies for constructing a lineup, emphasizing value and risk assessment. Their preferred DFS plays are scattered throughout the conversation and often contingent upon specific factors, such as pricing and lineup construction. Here's a summary:
High-Value Plays (Sub-8K Range on DraftKings):
Stud Plays (Higher Price Point):
Overall Strategy:
The speakers repeatedly emphasize constructing a balanced lineup, combining high-value lower-priced players with one or two higher-priced "stud" players. They advocate for a strategy focused on choosing players who are likely to minimize mistakes and perform consistently in challenging conditions. They mention the majority of successful lineups consist of 70% of players under 8K, further emphasizing the need to seek value in lower priced players.
Important Note: The specific players and strategies are subject to change based on the ever-shifting dynamics of DFS and the real-time information available during the tournament. This analysis is strictly based on what is stated in the transcript.