About this Video

• Video Title: Powell: ¡Recesión o inflación! La decisión ya es clara. ¡Alerta con tu portafolio!
• Channel: Daniel Muvdi
• Speakers: Daniel M
• Duration: 00:52:34

Introduction

This video discusses the implications of Moody's downgrade of the United States' credit rating and its potential impact on the market. The speaker analyzes the situation, considering factors like the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's monetary policy, and ongoing trade tensions. He ultimately shares his decision to adjust his portfolio based on his assessment of the current economic climate and potential for a mild recession.

Key Takeaways

• Moody's Downgrade: Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to the high and rising fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the country's ability to manage its debt.
• Credit Death Spiral Risk: The speaker highlights the risk of a "credit death spiral" where increasing interest payments exacerbate the deficit, further increasing interest rates.
• Fed's Dilemma: The Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision between combating inflation and preventing a recession, with the speaker believing a controlled recession is the likely path.
• Portfolio Adjustments: Based on the analysis, the speaker decides to take profits and shift his portfolio towards cash and gold, considering the high risk and uncertainty in the market.
• Technical Analysis: The video includes a technical analysis of several assets, including TLT (Treasury bond ETF), BTC (Bitcoin), indices, and ETH (Ethereum), influencing the speaker's portfolio decisions.

The speaker, Daniel M, is making the following specific portfolio moves:

• Taking Profits and Moving to Cash: He is largely liquidating his portfolio, moving a significant portion of his holdings into cash. This is a general move across multiple assets.

• Reducing Positions: He is reducing rather than completely exiting some positions, aiming to maintain some exposure while lowering risk. The extent of reduction varies by asset.

• Specific Asset Changes: The following details the specific changes described for each asset:

  • DraftKings: Reducing the position by 10%.
  • Amazon: Taking profits (percentage unspecified, but described as "excellent") and considering further purchases.
  • American Express: Taking profits at a near peak (percentage unspecified but stated as 23%).
  • Icon: Reducing by 15%.
  • Tesla: Taking profits (percentage unspecified, but stated as 40%).
  • Bitcoin: Reducing the position by approximately 50%, retaining the other half to monitor market behavior.
  • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): Completely liquidating his SPY position, taking all profits.
  • Occidental Petroleum: Reducing the position by 66%, retaining some exposure.
  • Vistra: Reducing position by 50%.
  • Gold (GLD): Significantly increasing his position in gold by approximately $4,000.
  • Gold Miners (GDX): Increasing his position to roughly $2,000.
  • Ethereum: Reducing his position by 50%, taking profits.

It's important to note that the exact percentages for some asset reductions aren't specified in the transcript. Only ranges or general descriptions ("excellent," "significant") are provided for certain assets. The speaker also states that he is making these moves live during the video recording, so some details might be approximate.