About this Video

• Video Title: Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
• Channel: Dwarkesh Patel
• Speakers: Sarah Paine, Dwarkesh Patel
• Duration: 01:56:22

Introduction

This video lecture by Sarah Paine analyzes the shift in the Asian balance of power during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, focusing on Japan's victories against China in the First Sino-Japanese War and against Russia in the Russo-Japanese War. Paine uses a thesis-counterargument-rebuttal framework to explore the factors leading to Japan's success, considering both Japan's strategic choices and the internal weaknesses of its adversaries.

Key Takeaways

• Japan's Meiji Reforms and Westernization: Japan's successful modernization involved comprehensive Westernization of its institutions (political, economic, legal, educational, and military), enabling it to compete with Western powers.
• Grand Strategy and Integration of National Power: Japan's strategic success stemmed from its integration of diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economic instruments of national power, effectively isolating Russia and leveraging its internal weaknesses.
• Exploiting the Culminating Point of Victory: Japan's strategic timing in the Russo-Japanese War, ending the conflict at its culminating point of victory, maximized gains and prevented potential third-party intervention.
• China's Internal Weakness: While Japan's strategic brilliance is emphasized, the lecture also acknowledges China's internal strife (civil wars, dynastic decline, and preindustrial limitations) as a contributing factor to its defeat.
• Russia's Incompetence and Miscalculations: Russia's failures are attributed to incompetent leadership, underestimation of the Japanese capabilities, logistical bottlenecks, and internal unrest. The lecture contrasts Russia's actions with Japan's calculated strategic moves.
• Importance of Institutions: The lecture repeatedly stresses the importance of strong institutions for national success, contrasting Japan's effective institutions with the weaknesses of Russia and China.
• Value of the Object: The lecture highlights the differential value placed on victory by the belligerents; Japan's existential threat versus Russia's more opportunistic motives influenced their respective strategies and resource allocation.
• Lessons for Modern Geopolitics: The lecture draws parallels between Japan's actions in the early 20th century and modern geopolitical events, such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, emphasizing the need for adaptable strategies and a clear understanding of adversaries' strengths and weaknesses.

The lecture offers several reasons why large countries lose wars, primarily illustrated through the example of Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War:

1. Incompetent Leadership and Underestimation of the Enemy: Russia's leadership significantly underestimated Japan's capabilities and strategic planning. This underestimation led to poor strategic decisions and a failure to adequately prepare for war. The lecture contrasts this with Japan's meticulous planning and execution.

2. Logistical Bottlenecks and Inefficient Resource Allocation: Russia's incomplete Trans-Siberian Railway hampered its ability to effectively deploy troops and resources to the front lines. This logistical failure, coupled with inefficient resource management, hindered their war effort. Japan, in contrast, made efficient use of its resources.

3. Internal Instability and Lack of Popular Support: Russia faced internal political and social unrest, including mass strikes and peasant uprisings, which diverted resources and undermined national unity. This contrasted sharply with Japan's cohesive national effort spurred by its strong institutions and shared national goals. The lecture suggests this internal conflict forced Russia to prematurely end the war effort.

4. Poor Military Strategy and Tactics: Russia's military strategy and tactics were significantly inferior to Japan's. This lack of competence in military leadership and planning contributed substantially to their defeats in key battles.

5. Misidentification of the Value of the Object: Russia’s lack of commitment to the war is highlighted as a factor in its defeat. The lecture suggests the war was not of existential importance to Russia in the same way it was for Japan, impacting their commitment to the war effort and resource allocation.

The lecture uses the Russo-Japanese War as a case study to demonstrate that even large countries with substantial resources can lose wars due to a combination of poor leadership, internal weaknesses, and strategic miscalculations. The speaker emphasizes the critical role of strong institutions and effective strategic planning in achieving military success.

The lecture suggests that a successful grand strategy for a small country aiming to maintain the status quo, such as South Korea in its relationship with China and the US regarding Taiwan, involves:

Cooperation and Alliance Building: Small countries can leverage their influence by actively cooperating with larger powers to shape the international order and promote stability. Building strong alliances increases collective security and influence. The speaker highlights this as a crucial element that the US is currently neglecting. Strong alliances with other medium and small powers can create a counterbalance to larger, more aggressive states.

The example given is the formation of strong alliances and cooperation with other nations to prevent conflict, and to maintain a stable international order. The lecture notes that many small and medium sized countries have historically played influential roles in shaping global governance through this type of grand strategy.