Sarah Paine: The War For India (Lecture & Interview)

About this Video

• Video Title: Sarah Paine: The War For India (Lecture & Interview)
• Channel: Dwarkesh Patel
• Speakers: Sarah Paine, Dwarkesh Patel (Interviewer)
• Duration: 02:13:31

Introduction

This video features a lecture and subsequent interview with Sarah Paine, an expert in geopolitics and South Asian history. Paine delivers a comprehensive analysis of the Cold War's impact on India and Pakistan, focusing on the pivotal decisions, alliances, and limited wars that shaped the region's geopolitical landscape. The lecture utilizes a game-theory framework to illustrate the complex interactions between the major players (US, USSR, China, India, and Pakistan).

Key Takeaways

1. Pivotal Decisions Shaped the Cold War in South Asia: Paine highlights key decisions like Mao's conquest of Tibet, which significantly altered the strategic balance, and the US's pactomania, leading to alliances that destabilized the region.
2. Alliances Were Fluid and Often Self-Serving: The alliances between the major powers and India/Pakistan shifted frequently based on perceived immediate benefits, leading to mistrust and instability. The US's attempts to befriend both India and Pakistan simultaneously proved particularly ineffective.
3. Limited Wars Had Unintended Long-Term Consequences: Paine discusses the Sino-Indian War of 1962 and the Bangladesh War of 1971 as examples of limited wars with profound and unexpected long-term effects, such as India's increased militarization and the rise of nuclear proliferation.
4. Understanding Primary Adversaries Is Crucial: The lecture emphasizes the importance of identifying each nation's primary adversary to understand their strategic choices and potential alliances. Shifting alliances were often influenced by changes in primary adversaries.
5. Instruments of National Power Varied in Effectiveness: Paine examines various instruments of national power, including diplomacy, economic aid, military aid, sanctions, and even the deployment of carrier battle groups, illustrating their successes and failures in the context of South Asian geopolitics. She concludes that the US often lacked effective strategies due to its lack of shared primary enemies with either India or Pakistan.