STEAL This INSANE Simple 90% Win Rate Trading Strategy (1:20+ RR) - TG Capital

About this video

• Video Title: STEAL This INSANE Simple 90% Win Rate Trading Strategy (1:20+ RR) - TG Capital
• Channel: Chart Fanatics
• Speakers: [No speaker names provided in the transcript]
• Duration: 48:16

Overview

This video features TG Capital (Tyler) explaining his high risk-to-reward trading strategy, which he claims has a 90% win rate. He details his specific entry criteria, timeframes, indicators, and risk management techniques, emphasizing the importance of patience and discipline. The strategy focuses on trading within the London "kill zone" using the 30-minute timeframe, with targets on the daily chart.

Key takeaways

• Trading Strategy Focus: The strategy is primarily applied during the London "kill zone" (3:00 AM - 6:30 AM NY time) on the 30-minute timeframe, with targets identified on the daily chart.
• Entry Criteria: Key elements include stacked EMAs (5, 9, 13, 21) indicating bullish momentum, a fair value gap (FVG), and a "trident pattern" involving a specific candle sequence and price action relative to the FVG. A doji candle at the 50% FVG mark is crucial.
• Risk Management: A minimum risk-to-reward ratio of 1:20 is targeted. For USD pairs, a 10-pip stop loss is used. For gold, a hard stop loss is avoided, with a wait for a candle close below a certain level instead, due to its volatility and liquidity wicks.
• Patience and Discipline: The speaker repeatedly stresses that this strategy has a low frequency of setups (8-10 entries per year per pair) and requires significant patience. He contrasts this with the common struggle of traders wanting to trade constantly.
• Psychological Aspect: The video touches on the psychological challenges of high risk-to-reward trading, managing P&L fluctuations, and the importance of finding a strategy that aligns with one's own psychology.
• Backtesting and Data: TG Capital emphasizes the importance of rigorous backtesting and collecting personal trading data to refine the strategy and build confidence.
• Bias: The speaker has a long bias, primarily trading bullish assets like gold and NASDAQ, and states he is not proficient at shorting.
• EMA Use: Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are used for confirming trend momentum, with stacking EMAs indicating a strong trend.

The "trident pattern" for trade entry involves a sequence of specific candle formations and price actions:

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): The pattern begins with a fair value gap printing on the chart, ideally within the trading "kill zone" and timeframes.
• Doji Candle: Following the FVG, a doji candle is sought. This doji should ideally wick through the FVG, specifically touching or reaching the 50% mark (consequent encroachment).
• Confirmation Candle: The candle that forms after the doji candle is crucial. For a valid long setup, this candle must close below the high of the doji candle. If it closes above the doji's high, the setup is considered invalidated.
• EMA Alignment: The EMAs (5, 9, 13, 21) should be stacked, indicating strong bullish momentum, aligning with the overall trend bias.
• Timing: These formations should occur within the specified trading session, such as the London kill zone, and ideally on the 30-minute timeframe for entry, aligning with higher time frame (daily) structure.

Based on the transcript, Tyler (TG Capital) primarily focuses on one core strategy, which he elaborates on extensively. He mentions having "a few setups that I utilize," but for the purpose of this video, he focuses on "the one that I utilize to make the most amount of money."

While he doesn't detail other distinct strategies, he does mention:

• Adapting the Model: He emphasizes that while he uses a specific model, viewers should take what works for them and adapt it. He notes that he personally doesn't trade order blocks effectively but is good with fair value gaps.
• Shorting vs. Longing: He explicitly states he is a "long biased trader" and is "not good at shorting." His data shows most of his profits come from longs, especially on naturally bullish assets like gold and the NASDAQ. This implies he might take shorts but doesn't focus on them or considers them lower probability for him.
• Using Higher Time Frames for Bias: He uses the daily chart for overall narrative and higher time frame structure. He also mentions that if the 4-hour and daily charts are below the 200 EMA, his bias shifts to bearish, and he might cut long trades earlier or look for shorts, though he doesn't detail his shorting strategy.
• Other Indicators/Confluences: He briefly mentions using an indicator that shows candle closing strength (green for strong bullish, blue for less strong bullish, red for strong bearish, black for less strong bearish) and the 200 EMA as a bias indicator, but these are presented as additional confluence rather than separate strategies.

So, while he possesses knowledge of other concepts (like order blocks, breakers, and shorting), the video centers on his primary, highly refined strategy that combines specific price action (FVGs, "trident pattern"), institutional concepts (kill zones), and momentum indicators (EMAs) within a strict time window.