Stocks Are "As Expensive As I've Ever Seen Them" | Ted Oakley

About this video

• Video Title: Stocks Are "As Expensive As I've Ever Seen Them" | Ted Oakley
• Channel: Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
• Speakers: Adam Taggart, Ted Oakley
• Duration: 01:06:29

Overview

This video features an interview with financial advisor Ted Oakley, who shares his economic and market outlook, warning that stocks are extremely overvalued and the market is in its "eighth or ninth inning." He discusses the potential for a significant bear market in 2026 or 2027, driven by factors like generational shifts, investor complacency, and a reversal of passive capital flows. Oakley also shares his firm's investment strategy, highlighting opportunities in energy and precious metals, and discusses the importance of succession planning for investors.

Key takeaways

• Market Overvaluation: Stocks are considered "as expensive as I've ever seen them," with high CAPE ratios and current earnings, suggesting the market is in its late stages.
• Potential Bear Market: A significant bear market is anticipated in 2026 or 2027, as a generation that hasn't experienced a true downturn matures and investor complacency is at an all-time high.
• Demographic Shifts and Selling Pressure: As the baby boomer generation ages, increased selling pressure may arise from health costs and the need to liquidate assets, potentially impacting markets.
• Passive Capital Flow Reversal: A reversal in passive investment flows could lead to sustained selling pressure, exacerbating any market downturn.
• Investment Strategy: A "30-30-30-10" allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on short-term treasuries, commodities, stocks, and cash reserves, with a preference for individual company analysis over index investing.
• Energy Sector Opportunity: The energy sector is identified as a top investment opportunity for the next 2-3 years due to attractive dividends and potential for future growth.
• Succession Planning: The importance of having a succession plan for managing finances and investments is stressed, especially for DIY investors, to ensure continuity in case of incapacitation or death.
• Investor Complacency: There is a high level of complacency among investors, who seem to disregard potential risks, making them vulnerable to a market correction.