This video is a preview of the 2025 Open Championship from a wagering perspective. It features a discussion between golf personalities Gary Williams, Johnson Wagner, and Brendan Young, and Keith Stewart from "Read the Line," a golf wagering analytics platform. The conversation focuses on how to approach wagering on the Open Championship using a blend of data analysis and intuitive player assessment.
The video doesn't end with a definitive "this golfer will win" statement from each panelist. However, based on their discussion:
Gary Williams: Doesn't explicitly state his pick.
Keith Stewart: Leans towards Xander Schauffele, but also mentions liking Tommy Fleetwood and Colin Morikawa, highlighting Fleetwood as a "flusher" (good ball striker).
Johnson Wagner: Chooses Scotty Scheffler, but suggests waiting until later in the tournament for better odds. He also likes Rahm based on his Open record and ball-striking ability.
Brendan Young: Prefers Rahm due to his strong Open Championship record and ball-striking skills. He also points to Cory Connors as a potential pick, contingent on his health.
The panelists discuss "dark horse" picks (long shots) as those with odds of 80 to 1 or higher. They mention several factors influencing their selection:
Course suitability: Players whose skills align well with the course's characteristics (e.g., strong ball-strikers for a course requiring accuracy).
Recent form: Good recent performance, even if not a major win, can indicate current potential.
Motivation: A player with a strong personal reason to perform well (e.g., aiming for a Ryder Cup spot).
Past performance at the Open: While not the sole criterion, a history of performing well at the Open, even years prior, can be relevant.
Specific long shots mentioned include:
Brian Harman: Cited as an example of a player who won at long odds (150 to 1).
Patrick Reed: Mentioned due to his motivation to perform well in majors to improve his chances for the Ryder Cup.
Aaron Rai: Highlighted for winning the Scottish Open and exhibiting strong performance in challenging conditions.
The panelists emphasize that long-shot bets should be made with smaller amounts to manage risk, focusing on value and potential returns rather than solely aiming for the outright win. They suggest considering top-20 finishes as a less risky alternative for long-shot players.
