About this Video

• Video Title: The 25% ‘Trump Recession’ Has Started - What You Must Know
• Channel: Graham Stephan
• Speakers: Graeme Stephan
• Duration: 00:13:39

Introduction

This video discusses the increasing likelihood of a recession in 2025, its potential impact on various aspects of the economy (stocks, housing, cryptocurrency), and strategies to potentially mitigate its effects. The speaker analyzes economic indicators and historical data to provide an unbiased perspective.

Key Takeaways

• Recession prediction: The odds of a recession have doubled, reaching a 50% likelihood in 2025. There's typically a 7.3-month lag between a recession's start and its official announcement.
• Recession impact on stocks: Historically, stocks peak 8 months before a recession, declining by about 30% on average. However, recessions show little correlation with long-term stock market performance; stocks have seen positive returns during 16 out of 30 recessions. A year after a recession ends, 85% of cases show positive stock market returns, and after three years, it's 100%.
• Recession impact on housing: Housing prices have historically been a good hedge against inflation. Interest rate drops during recessions make mortgages more accessible, potentially driving home prices up. Low mortgage rates for many existing homeowners and a low supply of homes make a large drop in prices unlikely, despite forecasts of small increases. Rent prices tend to remain stable or increase during recessions due to limited buying options.
• Trump tariffs impact: The speaker believes tariffs are a long-term negotiating strategy causing short-term market volatility, with price fluctuations resulting from tariff threats, retaliations, and temporary agreements.
• Staying employed is key: Maintaining consistent income is crucial to navigating a recession, allowing for continued investment opportunities during market downturns.