The Weirdest Ways to Predict A Recession

About this video

• Video Title: The Weirdest Ways to Predict A Recession
• Channel: Two Cents
• Speakers: Phillip, Julia
• Duration: 10:03

Overview

This video explores unconventional and often humorous metrics that have been proposed to predict economic recessions, contrasting them with the reliability of official government data like that from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The hosts discuss how economic downturns might be signaled by the sales of men's underwear, the length of women's hemlines, lipstick sales, snack and alcohol consumption, exotic dancer income, celebrity appearances, skyscraper construction, and even changes in deodorant and laxative sales. The video highlights the importance of trustworthy economic data and the potential consequences of tampering with it, using examples from Argentina and Greece.

Key takeaways

• Unconventional Economic Indicators: The video introduces several unusual metrics proposed as recession predictors, including men's underwear sales (Alan Greenspan), the hemline index, the lipstick effect, snack and alcohol sales patterns, the "stripper index," celebrity appearance trends, and the skyscraper index.
• Reliability of Official Data: The video emphasizes the value and reliability of official economic data, particularly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, as crucial tools for understanding the economy.
• Consequences of Data Manipulation: Historical examples from Argentina and Greece demonstrate the severe economic and political repercussions that can arise when governments tamper with or present biased economic data, leading to loss of investor confidence and public unrest.
• Importance of Trustworthy Data: The underlying message is that while anecdotal and unusual indicators can be interesting, they are not a substitute for rigorously collected and analyzed data. The integrity of statistical agencies is vital for economic stability and informed decision-making.