About this video

• Video Title: They are SELLING America
• Channel: Financial Education
• Speakers: Not explicitly stated, but the transcript is a monologue.
• Duration: 36 minutes 39 seconds

Overview

This video discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting significant drops in major indices and the return of the "sell America" trade. It analyzes the impact of rising interest rates on the housing market and provides insights into the performance of various assets like Bitcoin and silver. The speaker also delves into specific stock performances, discusses investment strategies, and offers a worst-case scenario analysis for Salesforce and Adobe, concluding with advice on maintaining a balanced investment approach amidst market volatility.

Key takeaways

• Market Downturn: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ experienced significant drops, indicating a potential "sell America" sentiment returning to the market.
• Interest Rates and Housing: A rise in the 10-year Treasury yield could negatively impact mortgage rates, potentially hindering the government's agenda to unfreeze the housing market by 2026.
• Asset Performance: Bitcoin has underperformed despite a generally good year for stocks, while silver has shown remarkable resilience and significant growth.
• Stock Performance and Investment Strategy: The speaker highlights specific stocks with strong gains (e.g., Meta, AMD, Celsius) and discusses a "Tesla hedge" strategy. They also reveal their top 8 stocks with the most upside potential over the next three years, ranking them.
• Salesforce and Adobe Analysis: These software stocks are identified as "hated" by Wall Street despite strong earnings, with the speaker believing they are nearing a bottom and presenting an opportunity for investment.
• Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment: The video emphasizes the extreme fluctuations in investor sentiment and warns about potential "bear traps," advocating for a balanced and long-term investment approach focused on earnings.
• Netflix Earnings and Acquisition Concerns: Despite strong earnings, Netflix's stock is down due to concerns about an $83 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers, which the speaker views as a potential risk.
• Geopolitical Events: The Greenland situation is mentioned as a source of media attention and potential short-term volatility but not a driver of a major market crash.

The speaker's "Tesla hedge" is essentially a financial instrument designed to profit if Tesla's stock price goes down. They use a "2x inverse" product, which means for every 1% that Tesla's stock drops, this hedge is designed to increase in value by 2%.

They implemented this strategy as a hedge for the current year, particularly as a protection against potential market downturns. The transcript states that this hedge has been performing well, gaining 33% in the last month.

The speaker emphasizes that this is not a statement about Tesla being a "bad company" but rather a bet on its valuation. The idea is that if the overall market becomes shaky, Tesla, being a high-valuation stock, is likely to experience a significant sell-off, and the hedge is intended to profit from that decline.

The transcript does not explicitly mention "options" in relation to the Tesla hedge or other investment strategies discussed. The speaker refers to a "2x inverse against Tesla stock," which is a type of financial product, but it's not specified if this product is in the form of options. The focus is on the strategy of hedging against a potential stock price decline rather than the specific financial instrument used.

Here are the stocks mentioned in the transcript and the claims detailed about them:

• Tesla:

  • The speaker has a "Tesla hedge" which is a 2x inverse against Tesla stock.
  • This hedge has appreciated 33% in the past month.
  • The hedge is a bet on valuation, not against the company itself.
  • The speaker believes if the market gets shaky, Tesla will sell off huge.

• Bitcoin:

  • It has been down 11-12% over the past year.
  • It has struggled to gain momentum despite a good past year for markets generally.

• Silver:

  • It refuses to go down, regardless of market conditions.
  • It has gained 205% in the past year.
  • People trying to short it keep getting "obliterated."

• Micron:

  • Mentioned as a stock that might have beaten silver in performance over the past year.

• Celsius:

  • Was up nearly 4% on the day discussed.
  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 131%.
  • Ranked #4 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years due to the Lonnie deal, international expansion with Pepsi, and potential for margin/EPS increase and share buybacks.

• AMD:

  • Was flirting with being green on the day discussed.
  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 107%.
  • Ranked #2 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years, with potential from the 450 (going into production mid-year) and 500 series, and other turning corners in businesses. The speaker believes it could push to $500+.

• Estee Lauder:

  • Was hardly down on the day discussed.

• ELF (e.l.f. Beauty):

  • Was hardly down on the day discussed.
  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 159%.
  • Ranked #3 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years, with potential for clarity on the business model despite tariff drama.

• Meta:

  • It's the speaker's biggest investment in the public account.
  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 424%.
  • Ranked #1 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years due to being attractively priced with phenomenal revenue and EPS growth. The only worry is depreciation of chips.
  • Mentioned as an example of a stock that was bought when it was down significantly (from $300+ to $88 in 2022) and continued to be bought as it recovered.

• Alphabet (Google):

  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 1,124%.
  • Ranked #5 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years, considered fairly valued and a leader in AI despite initial underrecognition.

• Palantir:

  • It's one of the public account's active positions, up 2,205%.
  • Ranked #8 (least upside) among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years due to valuation, despite expecting great growth.

• Salesforce:

  • Down almost 17% year-to-date.
  • The stock "just sells off" daily.
  • Considered "hated" by Wall Street, with a significant divergence between its Q's performance and stock price.
  • Worst-case scenario for the stock price is estimated at $180.
  • The speaker is buying it weekly and plans to continue through Q1 and potentially Q2.
  • It's considered an incredible opportunity to buy.

• Adobe:

  • Down 17.17% year-to-date.
  • Considered "hated" by Wall Street, with a significant divergence between its Q's performance and stock price.
  • Worst-case scenario for the stock price is estimated at $250.
  • The speaker is buying it weekly and plans to continue through Q1 and potentially Q2.
  • It's considered an incredible opportunity to buy.

• Netflix:

  • Stock is going down, at its lowest point in about two years, despite "phenomenal" and "A+" earnings.
  • Revenues went over $12 billion, EPS was 56 cents.
  • Concerns about an $83 billion potential acquisition of Warner Brothers are a "big dark cloud" and a "holdup" for the stock.
  • The speaker is not bullish on Netflix in the short term and would not want to buy it tomorrow due to the acquisition situation.
  • The speaker believes Netflix is a great company and was a past profitable investment for them.

• SoFi (SoFi Technologies):

  • Had a big run, previously a $6 stock, and recently in the $26-$28 range.
  • Ranked #6 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years.
  • The speaker is increasingly confident in it as a one-stop financial shop, but notes a risk if credit card interest rates decrease significantly.

• Revolve:

  • Ranked #7 among the speaker's top stocks for the next three years, noted for its great CEO and resilience through various economic storms. The speaker mentions it could run "huge."

• Intuit:

  • Down over 16% in the past 5 days.
  • The speaker dismisses the idea that AI will make QuickBooks obsolete, highlighting its integration with businesses and tax professionals.

• Shopify:

  • Down over 14 percentage points in the past 5 days.
  • The speaker implies Wall Street's reasoning for selling is that AI will eliminate the need for it, which they dismiss.

The stock Revolve is ranked as the seventh stock with the most upside potential over the next three years according to the speaker. The speaker highlights that the company has "great CEOs" who have done a "phenomenal job running the business over the years," successfully navigating through challenges like the pandemic, inflation, stimulus, and tariffs. The speaker notes that Revolve "emerged on the other side stronger than ever" and predicts that if it runs, it will run "huge."

Here is the ranking of the top stocks the speaker believes have the most upside over the next three years, based on their performance in the public account (doubled or more):

1. Meta: Cited as the biggest investment and having the most upside due to being attractively priced with phenomenal revenue and EPS growth.
2. AMD: Strong potential due to upcoming products (450 and 500 series) and other businesses turning a corner. The speaker believes it could reach $500+.
3. ELF (e.l.f. Beauty): Expected to do well as tariff drama clears and business model clarity emerges. The speaker owns significant positions in other portfolios as well.
4. Celsius: Positives include the Lonnie deal, international expansion with Pepsi, and potential for increasing margins and EPS, as well as share buybacks.
5. Alphabet (Google): Considered fairly valued and a leader in AI, with Gemini continuing to improve and gain market share.
6. SoFi (SoFi Technologies): Recognized for its one-stop financial shop model, though a potential risk is noted if credit card interest rates decrease significantly.
7. Revolve: Praised for its strong leadership and resilience through economic storms, with potential for huge gains if it runs.
8. Palantir: Identified as having the least upside among these eight stocks, primarily due to valuation, despite expecting strong growth.

The speaker explicitly states they are buying Salesforce and Adobe every single week for the remainder of Q1 and potentially into Q2. They view these stocks as presenting an "incredible opportunity to buy" and believe they are much closer to bottoming than to not bottoming. The speaker is actively accumulating these shares despite their current downturn.