Tom Lee: A New 10 Year Bull Market Is Starting

About this video

• Video Title: Tom Lee: A New 10 Year Bull Market Is Starting
• Channel: Tom Nash
• Speakers: Tom Nash
• Duration: 16:16

Overview

This video discusses Tom Lee's prediction of a new 10-year bull market extending to 2035. The presenter breaks down Lee's rationale, including factors like AI capital expenditures, demographic shifts (millennial peak), and the argument that current market valuations are not as expensive as they appear when considering equal-weight indices. The video also includes the presenter's analysis, historical data on bull markets, and advice on disciplined investing strategies regardless of market predictions.

Key takeaways

• Tom Lee's Bull Market Prediction: Lee forecasts a bull market lasting until 2035, driven by AI investment and millennial demographics.
• Valuation Argument: Lee contends that market valuations are not excessively high, especially when looking at equal-weight S&P 500 data, which shows a lower P/E ratio than the headline index.
• Demographic Influence: The aging and wealth accumulation of millennials are cited as a significant factor supporting a prolonged bull market, similar to the baby boomer peak in the late 1990s.
• Skepticism and Fear: Lee views current investor skepticism and fear as indicators that the market has room to grow, contrasting it with the euphoria of 1999.
• Historical Bull Market Data: The average bull market lasts about 4.9 years with a 180% return, and the current market is approximately three years in with a 90% return, suggesting it's halfway to the average.
• Lee's Investment Principles: Lee advises investors to be owners, not traders; avoid timing market tops; ignore sentiment; and focus on fundamentals and data.
• Presenter's Strategy: The presenter advocates for a disciplined "dollar cost average double down system," investing consistently but adjusting the pace based on market conditions, and emphasizes the importance of investing in fundamentally sound companies.
• Risks and Caveats: Both Lee and the presenter acknowledge risks such as policy shocks, inflation, execution failures in AI, and potential shifts in millennial investment behavior.