We Are Entering a Recession Unemployment, Jobs, JOLTS, CEO Report 06 Sep Economic Update

About this video

• Video Title: We Are Entering a Recession Unemployment, Jobs, JOLTS, CEO Report 06 Sep Economic Update
• Channel: Financial Freedom 101
• Speakers: Not specified in the transcript
• Duration: 17:11

Overview

This video provides an economic update for September 6, 2025, focusing on indicators suggesting a potential recession. It explains the difference between the economy and the stock market, analyzes recent job reports, unemployment figures, and the JOLTS report. The speaker also discusses CEO survey data, leading and coincident economic indicators, housing market trends, delinquency rates, inflation data, and their implications for the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting. Finally, the speaker offers personal strategies for navigating a potential economic downturn.

Key takeaways

• Economy vs. Stock Market Distinction: Layoffs and cost-cutting measures, while bad for the economy and individuals, can increase company profits and thus boost stock prices, highlighting a divergence between the two.
• Deteriorating Job Market Indicators: August's job report showed only 22,000 jobs added, significantly below the typical requirement of 80,000-100,000 for stable unemployment. Revisions to previous months' job creation data have also been largely negative.
• Rising Unemployment and Decreasing Job Openings: The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.3%, and the number of available jobs (7.2 million) is now less than the number of unemployed people (7.4 million), indicating a tightening labor market.
• CEO Confidence Declining: A CEO survey revealed that 34% plan to reduce their workforce, an increase from the previous quarter, signaling a negative outlook.
• Recessionary Signals: Leading economic indicators have shown recession warnings for four months, and coincident indicators are leveling off, suggesting a potential recession in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Housing Market Weakness: New homes are selling for less than existing homes, inventory for new homes is high (9.2 months), and new home permits are declining, indicating a slowdown in construction and the housing sector. Delinquencies on car and home loans are also rising across credit tiers.
• Inflation Remains Above Target: Despite some potential relief from tariffs being ruled illegal, inflation indicators (CPI, PPI, PCE) are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
• Federal Reserve Action Expected: The speaker predicts a 0.25% to 0.50% reduction in the federal interest rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17th to stimulate employment.
• Personal Financial Strategy: The speaker advises maintaining a 6+ month emergency fund in high-yield savings, CDs, or short-term treasury bonds, and for long-term investments (5+ years), utilizing dollar-cost averaging into diversified portfolios like the S&P 500 and international funds.