This video analyzes a significant stock market downturn. The speaker, Jeremy Lefebvre, discusses market reactions to news events, including commentary from various financial experts like Tom Lee, Ray Dalio, and Mike Wilson, offering his perspectives and investment strategies. He highlights the importance of understanding market psychology and identifying opportunities during market crashes.
According to data shared by Charlie on X, the average three-year forward return of the S&P 500 following the biggest 3-day VIX spikes was 39.12%, the average four-year return was 56%, and the average five-year return was 74.4%. One exception was noted around 2007, where a VIX spike to 80 resulted in negative 2-year and 3-year returns, but still positive returns over 4 and 5 years.
Morgan Stanley raised their base case for the 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,500. At the time of the video, the S&P 500 was barely clinging to 5,000. The speaker considered the probability of the base case happening to be very low.
Jeremy Lefebvre mentioned several stocks he was considering buying due to their low valuations, including Whirlpool (WHR), Adobe (ADBE), and RH (Restoration Hardware). He also expressed interest in AMD and mentioned several others that had experienced significant price drops (Nike, Bath & Body Works, Estee Lauder, Trade Desk, etc.) as potentially attractive buys.
