About this video

• Video Title: What if the Border of the Third Partition Remained?
• Channel: Possible History
• Speakers: Narrator
• Duration: 00:32:22

Overview

This video explores an alternate history scenario where the borders established by the Third Partition of Poland in 1795 are maintained after the Congress of Vienna in 1815. It analyzes how this change in borders could have impacted the subsequent development of Poland, Russia, Prussia, Austria, and potentially the entire geopolitical landscape of Europe leading up to World War I.

Key takeaways

• Historical Context: The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, once a dominant power, declined due to internal issues and external pressures, leading to its partitions by Russia, Prussia, and Austria in the late 18th century.
• Congress of Vienna's Decision: Despite the existence of the Third Partition borders, the Congress of Vienna (1815) ultimately established new borders, largely favoring Russia's control over Poland in the form of a separate Kingdom of Poland with a liberal constitution, though this proved to be a façade.
• Alternate Scenario Premise: The video hypothesizes a scenario where, at the Congress of Vienna, Russia is compelled to accept the restoration of the Third Partition borders, either through a direct agreement or due to being outwitted or weakened.
• Impact on Poland: Under the Third Partition borders, Poland would have been divided between Russia and Prussia. The video suggests that while Austrian rule was more lenient, Russian and Prussian rule would have involved systematic oppression, Russification, and Germanization, though possibly less brutal than in our timeline.
• Geopolitical Repercussions: Maintaining the Third Partition borders could have altered the balance of power in Europe. It might have weakened Prussia's strategic depth, influenced Austria's position, and potentially created deeper divisions between Russia and the Germanic powers.
• 19th Century Revolutions: The video examines how these altered borders might have affected the Polish uprisings of the 19th century and the broader European revolutions of 1848. A weaker or more embittered Russia might have acted differently, potentially supporting Polish revolts or fracturing alliances.
• Path to World War I: The altered borders could have significantly impacted the relationship between Germany and Russia. A larger buffer zone might have reduced German fears of Russia, potentially delaying or even preventing World War I by altering the military calculations and strategic pressures that contributed to its outbreak.