What's really happening with crypto cycles

About this Video

• Video Title: What's really happening with crypto cycles
• Channel: Vandell Aljarrah
• Speakers: Van Dell
• Duration: 00:23:53

Introduction

This video addresses the misconception surrounding the current state of cryptocurrency markets, specifically whether they are in a bear market or a bull run. Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalists, explains the crypto cycle in simple terms, focusing on the relationship between global liquidity and cryptocurrency market movements.

Key Takeaways

• Four-year crypto cycles are not dead, but evolving: Despite claims to the contrary, the speaker argues that the established four-year cycle is still relevant, albeit modified by evolving market dynamics.
• Global liquidity drives crypto markets: Cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, is strongly correlated with global liquidity and money printing cycles, more so than other assets like stocks, real estate, or gold. Expansions in global M2 money supply lead to crypto price increases, and contractions lead to crashes. There's an approximate 8-10 week lag between global M2 expansion and its impact on crypto markets.
• Current market activity is not a bear market: The speaker asserts the current market is still in a bull market phase. Recent rallies are due to short-term factors (ETF inflows, political sentiment) rather than fundamental liquidity increases. The significant liquidity injection that typically triggers a major bull run and altcoin season hasn't happened yet.
• Central banks wait for economic weakness before intervention: Major liquidity injections from central banks occur after economic downturns, recessions, or market stress, not preemptively. The current economic strategy involves cooling the economy to create room for future stimulus.
• A major bull run is anticipated after economic cooling: Once economic indicators show sufficient weakness, central banks will intervene with significant stimulus, leading to currency debasement and a substantial rise in asset prices, including cryptocurrency.