This Gresham College lecture by David Stevenson explores the surprising and multifaceted reasons behind the sudden end of World War I in 1918. The lecture challenges the common perception of a clear Allied victory, instead focusing on the complex interplay of military stalemate, domestic political situations, and diplomatic deadlock that led to the Armistice.
Triple Stalemate: The war reached a stalemate on three fronts: military (due to trench warfare and high casualty rates making decisive breakthroughs impossible), political (domestic support for the war remained strong in most countries, preventing internal collapse), and diplomatic (deep political divisions prevented negotiated peace).
The Role of the Russian Revolution: The Bolshevik seizure of power in Russia and the subsequent Treaty of Brest-Litovsk significantly altered the war's dynamics, removing Russia from the conflict and freeing up significant Central Powers resources.
German Offensives and Allied Counteroffensives: A series of German offensives in the spring of 1918 failed, leading to a decisive Allied counteroffensive in the summer and fall. Technological advantages, such as superior artillery and the increased use of tanks and aerial reconnaissance, contributed to the Allied success.
Collapse of the German Army and Domestic Conditions: The German army suffered massive losses and a significant drop in morale. The combination of military setbacks and internal political pressures (food shortages, rising revolutionary sentiment) prompted the German High Command to seek an armistice.
Allied Calculations: The Allies, particularly the U.S., also played a crucial role in the Armistice. The US's substantial and increasing military involvement was important, but the Allies also factored in the economic costs and potential domestic political consequences of a prolonged war.
