About this Video

• Video Title: Why Everyone Is Wrong On This Market
• Channel: Joseph Carlson
• Speakers: Joseph Carlson
• Duration: 00:31:48

Introduction

This video discusses the US economy's contraction in the first quarter of 2025, analyzing its causes and implications. The speaker, Joseph Carlson, reviews his own portfolio performance, contrasting it with market indexes, and then delves into the earnings reports of several companies, offering his insights and investment perspectives. He addresses the narratives surrounding a potential recession and the impact of tariffs on economic indicators.

Key Takeaways

• US Economy Contraction: The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, defying initial growth projections. This contraction, while raising recession concerns, is partly attributed to a surge in imports anticipating future tariffs, rather than solely reflecting weakened consumer demand.
• Portfolio Outperformance: Carlson's investment portfolios have outperformed market benchmarks (S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100) in both year-to-date and trailing-year performance, emphasizing his strategy of investing in "compounding machines"—companies with stable, predictable growth even during economic downturns.
• Company Earnings Reports: Several companies reported earnings: S&P Global (positive report, with plans to spin off its mobility division), Visa (strong growth despite macroeconomic uncertainty), Booking Holdings (exceeded expectations, defying narratives of travel demand collapse), FICO (strong performance), and Spotify (robust growth). Amazon's upcoming earnings are also discussed.
• Tariff Impact: The significant increase in imports before potential tariffs distorted the Q1 GDP report, potentially masking underlying economic strength. The actual consumer and business spending remained relatively strong, according to various metrics.
• Investment Strategy: Carlson advises maintaining a long-term investment strategy, focusing on company fundamentals rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations driven by macroeconomic concerns.